The effects of the La Niña phenomenon are clearly evident in the eastern Mediterranean and are reflected in the poor performance of the rainy season so far.

Arab Weather - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) later announced that conditions have officially formed to declare the development of the La Niña phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, after officials monitored its development throughout most of 2024. Initial forecasts now indicate that the La Niña phenomenon will continue until April 2025, then move to a neutral state (ENSO-neutral) between March and May 2025.

La Niña is statistically associated with the strengthening of the Siberian High in winter in the eastern Mediterranean and with above-average rainfall in the western Mediterranean.

Arab weather forecasters believe that the La Niña phenomenon is statistically linked to the intensification of the Siberian high's influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter. The La Niña phenomenon often affects the Arab region with a lack of rain in the Levant, but the opposite happens in the Maghreb, where rain increases and temperatures drop below average. The chance of floods and torrents increases in the Maghreb, while the chance of drought increases in the Levant as a result of the Siberian high's control.

This is what we see implicitly on the ground, as the countries of the eastern Mediterranean basin were affected by a repeated extension of the Siberian high and a severe shortage in rainfall, while the countries of the Maghreb were affected by strong winter depressions that brought abundant rain and snowfall several times over the high mountainous elevations, especially northern Algeria, since the beginning of winter. Computer modeling also shows that the abundance of rain will continue during the coming period.

There is a 60% chance that La Niña will continue until spring 2025.

This new La Niña is expected to last through the spring months in the Northern Hemisphere with a 60% probability, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which leaves plenty of room for La Niña to last longer than expected. However, the effects of La Niña are likely to be less than previous La Niña cycles because this year's La Niña is classified as weak according to the NOAA report, but its effects have been evident in the past months and up until now.

Climate cycles are just one part of a larger pattern that drives global weather systems.

La Niña also affects the pattern of air currents and global weather in many ways, which may lead to changes in temperatures and precipitation in different parts of the world. However, it cannot be said with certainty that its effects will be inevitable in terms of their impact on the world's climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred, with the need to emphasize that these climate cycles are only an integral part of giant patterns that drive global weather systems.

And God knows best.