Latest developments: In the coming days...the Arabian Sea may host the first tropical event in the northern Indian Ocean

Arabia Weather - Weather forecasters in the regional “Arab Weather” are monitoring high indicators shown by computer forecast maps of the possibility of the formation of the first tropical condition in the Arabian Sea during the current week. If it forms, it is considered the first case during the second season of tropical activity in the northern Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, which extends from the beginning of October until mid-December, and is called (Post-monsoon), meaning the season that follows the activity of the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea. .

Weather forecasters at the Center believe that weather conditions are favorable in the Arabian Sea to form a tropical state, especially since the Arabian Sea is still recording surface temperatures higher than their usual levels, and the summer monsoon winds have begun to recede from most parts of the Arabian Sea. However, it is difficult to know precisely the extent of the development of this system and the path it may take from now before the orbital state is formed on the ground, as the possibilities are wide open.

God knows best and highest.

General information about tropical states

Conditions for the formation of orbital states

• The presence of an area of low air pressure that attracts winds and causes strong upward air currents with a circular rotational movement.
• The surface temperature of seawater is so warm, exceeding 27°C, that the warm water and the resulting water vapor are the fuel that powers tropical systems.
• Weak wind shear, because wind shear limits the vertical growth of cumulus clouds, that is, they hinder the process of increasing the thickness of the clouds.

Factors controlling the course of tropical states, God willing

• The path of an orbital state depends on its vertical depth and the extent of its vertical curvature.
• Atmospheric pattern (distribution of atmospheric lows and highs) and the resultant winds controlling the atmosphere.
• The interaction of the orbital state with its surrounding atmosphere (such as terrain).

Classification of tropical cases...the two most prominent classifications:

• Tropical conditions are classified according to the speed of the surface winds around the center (according to the Saffir-Simpson scale). The classification reaches a tropical storm when the speed of the surface winds around the center reaches at least 34 knots, and then a name is given to it. The naming of tropical conditions over the northern Indian Ocean began in the year 2004, and the classification reaches a tropical cyclone if the surface wind speed around the center reaches at least 64 knots.
• There is another measurement to measure the severity of orbital conditions, using the Dvorak technique, which relies on satellite images to estimate the severity of the orbital condition.