Polar dome warming produces weather systems that cause extreme weather phenomena.. What is the impact of this on the Arab world?

Arab Weather - Weather experts at the Arab Weather Regional Center are following the consequences of the sudden warming that is occurring in the Arctic Circle and the resulting formation of a region of high atmospheric pressure, which caused the polar jet stream to break and resulted in extreme weather conditions in the northern hemisphere, which are expected to continue in the coming period, God willing.

Sudden warming causes extreme weather patterns

In detail, meteorologists at the Arab Weather Regional Center said that as a result of the weakness of the western polar winds above the Arctic Circle, and the descent of polar air from the upper levels of the atmosphere close to the Earth's surface, a temporary stratospheric warming occurs in the Arctic Dome region, which causes the formation of a strong high above the Arctic Circle. As previously mentioned, the upper western winds are what contain the polar masses in the Arctic, and as a result of their weakness, they are unable to contain the polar air and keep it in its original home (the North Pole).

Stratospheric warming affects the polar vortex, causing changes in polar air distribution patterns, and is directly reflected in the movement of jet streams and weather patterns in various regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The high pressure caused by warming is expected to cause the dispersion of polar air masses, and thus a break in the polar jet stream occurs, causing the dispersion of polar air masses. It is expected that polar air masses will be concentrated in the coming period over northern and western Europe, in addition to northeastern North America and Russia, as the aforementioned countries will be exposed to very cold polar waves and heavy snow, especially in North America.

The shape of the weather system in the northern hemisphere takes on more winter-like features.

Weather experts at the Arab Weather Regional Center indicated that the shape of weather systems in the northern hemisphere is taking on winter-like features during the coming period, as the high pressure system over the pole has enhanced the rush of very cold air masses coming from the North Pole towards the North Atlantic Ocean, which interact with warm and humid weather systems in the ocean, leading to the formation of deep depressions with wide-ranging effects. These depressions are expected to move across the Atlantic Ocean towards northwestern Europe in the form of massive rainstorms, causing weather disturbances and extreme weather patterns that will continue for several days in the coming period.

Atlantic storms directly affect Europe with severe weather disturbances

As air masses surge and Atlantic storms form, accompanied by a cold front, the storms cause strong winds and high waves, in addition to heavy rainfall and snowfall on high mountain peaks, especially in Iceland. Temperatures also drop below zero degrees Celsius in several areas of the northwest of the continent amidst extremely cold weather. In this context, these storms cause very high waves on the Atlantic coasts, which may lead to coastal flooding in some low-lying areas.

As a result of the undulation of the polar jet stream, rainstorms reach central and southern Europe, producing more heavy rains and severe thunderstorms. This type of weather condition is accompanied by strong updrafts, producing exceptional hailstorms with large hailstones, which damage public property.

As cold air passes over the warming surface of the Mediterranean Sea, and tropical humidity spreads, weather activity intensifies in central and southern Europe, particularly in the Balkan countries such as Italy and Greece. High-altitude thunderclouds are formed, accompanied by heavy rain, which increases the risk of flash floods and torrential rains.

What is the impact of sudden warming on weather patterns in the Arab world?

In this context, many questions were sent to the Arab Weather Center about the impact of this on the Arab world. Weather experts and climate experts said that when warming occurs and the polar jet stream breaks in this way, the accuracy of weather forecasts decreases in the medium and long term due to the many changes that occur in the atmosphere. The experts at the Arab Weather Center divided the answers to the questions into two parts, the first part concerns the Maghreb and the other part concerns the Middle East, including the Levant.

As for the Maghreb, experts said that the rainstorms affecting southern Europe as a result of the jet stream breaking are causing weather disturbances in the Maghreb countries, represented by heavy rains accompanied by hail and active surface winds in the coming days.

As for the Levant, Egypt and Iraq, the weather fluctuations continue without any weather events this week, and the weather remains stable but volatile in terms of temperature, while the weather remains stable in most parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

For those interested and specialists: What is sudden stratospheric warming?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a weather phenomenon that occurs in the stratosphere, where temperatures rise suddenly and dramatically, sometimes by tens of degrees Celsius within a few days. This phenomenon directly affects the polar vortex, disrupting or even collapsing it, and causing significant changes in weather patterns in the regions below it.

The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is a large area of low air pressure and strong winds that circulates around the North Pole in the stratosphere. The SV affects weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe, North America, and Asia. Occasionally, the vortex can become disturbed or broken up (due to a "sudden stratospheric warming" phenomenon), causing cold air from the North Pole to flow into the mid-latitudes, which can cause severe cold spells.

God knows best.