Jordan | The Kingdom is experiencing a state of rain drought.. What is the relationship between this and the strength of the rainy season and the chances of snow in the winter?

Arab Weather - Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Regional Center conducted a comprehensive assessment study of the status of the beginning of the rainy season in the Kingdom and the Levant, especially with the approach of the end of autumn and the approach of winter meteorologically at the beginning of December 2024. In this context, the Kingdom and the Levant have been going through a phase of weak rainfall since the beginning of the season, with very weak rainfall performance recorded, and a decrease in the amounts of recorded rainfall.

Evaluation of the current rainfall performance in the Kingdom, which indicates a significant weakness in the performance of the rainy season:

The region is experiencing a state of rain drought, and the performance of the rainy season is still weak compared to the usual levels for this time of year, reaching only 1% in the center of the Kingdom. This reflects a significant weakness in the performance of the rainy season so far. The performance of the rainy season is a term used to evaluate the amount of rainfall that falls during the rainy season compared to the expected or normal rate for that period. The performance of the rainy season is measured based on the amount of rainfall accumulated during the season and the frequency and distribution of precipitation. When it is said that the "rainy season performance is weak", this means that the rainfall was below the normal rate, while "good rainy season performance" indicates that the rainfall reached or exceeded the usual rates.

Causes of the prevailing rain drought:

A rain-free state is defined as the cessation or interruption of rainfall. For example, the central or southern regions and the areas where dams are located have not witnessed any significant rainfall, especially in the south of the Kingdom. This is due to the flow of cold polar air towards parts of Western Europe and northwest Africa, especially in Algeria and the Maghreb, causing rainstorms there, such as the storm that hit the Spanish capital, Madrid. In contrast, warm air flows towards the eastern Mediterranean, including Jordan and the Levant, which enhances the control of this warm belt over the atmosphere and leads to the continuation of the rain-free state, in addition to the distance of the centers of the air depressions and their concentration over Turkey.

Does the lack of rain affect the entire rainy season and snow forecasts?

Despite the lack of rain and the significant weakness of the rainy season, Arab Weather experts confirm that the final total for the rainy season does not depend only on the rainfall during the fall, and that there are many seasons in which the fall did not witness any good rainfall, while the final rain totals for the season ended with rainfall amounts around or above seasonal averages. However, the lack of rain is not directly related to the chances of snowfall during the winter. The Kingdom has witnessed snowfall in previous seasons despite the weak performance of the rainy season. The chances of snowfall are related to the cold air masses that reach the Kingdom in winter, and the weak start of the rainy season has nothing to do with the chances of snowfall.

Does the La Nina phenomenon have an impact on the poor performance of the rainy season?

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual. La Niña affects trade winds and global rainfall distribution, leading to significant changes in weather patterns in different regions around the world. However, it is not possible to say with certainty that the development of La Niña is the cause of the low rainfall amounts so far.

God knows best.