Climate puts wheat supplies at risk... A hidden epidemic threatens the world's food basket

ArabiaWeather - A recent study showed warnings about the possibility of a decline in global wheat production in the coming years due to climate change, which is considered a serious threat to global food security.

Climate change is considered a comprehensive threat to crops and food security at the global level, as plant diseases are considered one of the most important risks resulting from this change. An international team of researchers, with the participation of Professor Senthold Assing from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), indicated that the increased spread of fungal disease “ Wheat blast , a fungal disease of wheat , may reduce global wheat productivity by up to 13% by 2050 .

Wheat...a staple food crop globally

With a global agricultural area of 222 million hectares and a harvest volume of 779 million tons annually , wheat is one of the main food plants in most regions of the world, and tops the list of staple foods globally.

Why is wheat production declining?

Like other plants, wheat faces challenges due to climate change , with diseases spreading faster than in previous years, and the fungus Magnaporthe oryzae has been a major threat to wheat crops, especially in warm and humid regions, since it was first discovered in 1985.

This fungus has begun to spread from Brazil to other countries, with the first cases outside South America appearing in Bangladesh in 2016 and Zambia in 2018, and wheat farmers around the world are concerned about the destruction of their crops. Due to this plant disease, which caused significant losses in Brazil in 2009, and is now spreading again.

Experts confirm that the “wheat blast epidemic” poses a major threat to wheat productivity on a global scale, according to Dr. Barbara Valent from Kansas State University. Researchers from Germany, Mexico, Bangladesh, the United States, and Brazil have developed a model to predict the spread of “wheat blast” in the future to help... Fight it.

Areas most affected by the spread of “wheat blast” disease

According to the researchers, South America, southern Africa, and Asia are expected to be the regions most affected by the spread of wheat blast in the future, and it is estimated that up to 75% of the land area under wheat cultivation in Africa and South America may be at risk of this disease in the future. the future.

A study conducted by the non-profit organization "CIMMYT" , in cooperation with researchers from international universities, made predictions about the spread of "wheat blast" disease in the future. The study found that this disease causes massive losses in wheat crops in Brazil, Zambia and Bangladesh, and its spread is expected to continue in These countries and moves to new regions.

It is worth noting that areas at risk of the disease spreading include Uruguay, Central America, the southeastern United States, eastern Africa, India, and eastern Australia. However, the risk is expected to be low in Europe and East Asia, with the exception of some regions such as Italy, southern France, and Spain.

However, climate changes may increase the risk of disease spread in some areas, while it may decrease in others. For example, dry conditions and higher temperatures may increase disease spread, but may reduce the productivity potential of crops.

Efforts to combat the disease aim to develop new varieties of wheat that are resistant to the disease, in addition to educating farmers about preventive measures to limit the spread of the disease. Researchers are currently working on developing innovative methods to detect the disease and prevent its spread, in addition to using advanced agricultural techniques to improve the productivity of resistant crops.

Studies indicate that food insecurity in these areas may increase due to the spread of the disease, as these areas need to improve agriculture and adopt crops that are more resistant to changing environmental conditions.

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Sources:

al-ain

alhurra