Monthly Bulletin - Saudi Arabia | Below average temperatures and chances of rain improving in the second half of February

Monthly weather forecast for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia | February 2022: The weather is cooler than usual in large parts of the Kingdom and chances of rain improve in some areas during the second half of the month

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General situation :

1. The continued control of an air mass in all layers of the atmosphere over large parts of Saudi Arabia during the first half of the month, so that the chances of rain are limited in some areas.

2. The weather is colder than usual in various regions of the Kingdom, with frequent opportunities for frost to form in several parts of the north and center of the Kingdom.

3. Warning against the spread of colds / colds and seasonal diseases, especially in the second half of the month due to the clear cold weather.

4. An improvement is expected on the chances of rain in some areas during the second half of the month, with alerts from the flow of valleys and reefs, and torrential rains may form in some parts.

5. An opportunity for renewed snowfall, especially during the third and fourth weeks in some Tabuk heights.

6. Observe the chances of dust waves forming in some periods during the second half of the month.

Expected weather systems

Temperature deviation from the norm

Precipitation deviation from normal

Special weather for each week

First week (1-7 February 2022)

General forecast for the week

The subtropical air rise continues to dominate the atmosphere of the Arabian Peninsula, so that a completely stable atmosphere prevails in most regions, with chances of scattered showers of rain in parts of northern Saudi Arabia on the fifth day of the period after a cold air mass approaches from the eastern Mediterranean, amid remarkable activity Northwest winds over large parts of the north, center and west of the Kingdom raise dust and dust.

Week Two (February 8-14, 2022)

General forecast for the week

The air rise continues to dominate the Kingdom’s atmosphere, with weak rainy conditions in all regions, and the opportunity continues for some sporadic showers of rain in parts of the north and southwest of the Kingdom, amid an additional drop in temperatures in most regions, especially the northern and central, and chances of dust increase in Many areas as a result of the approach of cold and sometimes very cold air masses and the large thermal differences that occur and affect the atmospheric pressure values, which contribute to the formation of some dust waves.

Third week (Feb 15-21, 2022)

• Signs of a decline in the weight of the air altitude that dominates the atmosphere of the Arabian Peninsula, with the deepening of the air altitude on the European continent, especially the western parts of it, giving way to the extension of some cold upper air grooves sometimes from the north through Iraq and Iran, and at other times from the gateway to the Levant and the eastern basin of the Mediterranean As a result, rain chances have improved in some areas, especially the northern and eastern parts, God willing.

Fourth week and the rest of the month (Feb 22-28, 2022)

General forecast for the week

• The semi-tropical air rise recedes to center the south and southeast of the Arabian Peninsula, which ensures the continuation of a stable atmosphere in those areas, while there is an opportunity for some cold grooves to extend from the north and northeast, to renew the chances of rain in several parts of Saudi Arabia.

• The weather continues to be colder than usual, especially during the night, dawn and early morning hours, so that it is lower than its normal rates in large parts of the region, with indications that the effect of cumulus clouds will move towards parts of the center and north of the country, so that it is working to form torrential rain in some areas.

• Chances of thunderstorms rising in the area and warnings of torrential rain in some areas.

• Dust chances increase in many regions as a result of the approach of cold and sometimes very cold air masses and the large thermal differences that occur and affect the values of atmospheric pressure, which contribute to the formation of some dust waves, especially in central and eastern Saudi Arabia.

Climatic situation (for those interested and specialists):

The Arctic Oscillation Coefficient (AO) is expected to start the month in a negative pattern, but quickly rise to a neutral to light positive pattern, and it will continue its behavior during most of the month in this way with behavior very similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

These conditions are often accompanied by a good distribution of cold air masses in eastern Europe, to have the largest share of air masses rushing from the North Pole. It is expected, God willing, that the upper air altitude will continue to dominate large parts of the European continent, supported by the surface construction of the Azorean air rise, according to what computer modeling of atmospheric simulation senses. It is an important part of the European continent represented by its western, central and southern regions, and some computer modeling has even predicted that the air mass will be concentrated throughout the days of the month in the west of the European continent. Turkey in the south and the Balkan countries in the west are the main feeder after God’s will for the formation of winter depressions in Haw Eastern z of the Mediterranean, Egypt and northern Arabia.

The shape of the prevailing weather patterns in the winter season in the northern hemisphere is directly affected by the behavior of the so-called polar vortex, from which the winter depressions are branched. This is also evident from the expansion of the ice cover in important areas of the Arctic, unlike last year, when we were affected by the consequences of the weakening of the polar vortex and its unusual negative impact on most of the Arab world.

As for the Arabian Peninsula, it is still experiencing both conditions as a result of the interruption of weather activities after a generally weak marking, so that the La Nina phenomenon still afflicts the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean, which indirectly affects the heat exchange processes between Hadley cell and Ferrell cell, i.e. between the tropical zone (0 latitude 0 to 30 north), and a noticeable intensification of the semi-tropical air rise, which also extends its control over these areas, and these areas are also affected by direct consequences of the inactivity of the so-called Madden and Julian (MJO) amid weakness in the humid tropical response from the Arabian Sea.

As a summary, it has become a certainty, that with the deepening of the air mass in the European continent, and that it will expand in the north to reach the Scandinavian countries in some periods, forcing the continued influx of cold air masses towards the region at different angles, the arrival of this air mass would impose on the Levant region Significant drop in temperatures for most of the month, with the occurrence of large-scale waves of frost and ice in some periods. As for snow, the arrival of these air masses to the region requires more complex weather systems to cause large-scale snowfalls, which can be sensed at close intervals, God willing.

God knows.