under surveillance | The American Center GFS expects the development of a tropical situation in the Arabian Sea .. Preliminary details

Arab Weather - Sinan Khalaf - The weather forecast staff at the Arab Regional Weather Center is watching what some numerical models and numerical forecast centers have begun to indicate about the possibility of a tropical state forming in the Arabian Sea during the second half of this month.

under surveillance | The American Center GFS expects the development of a tropical situation in the Arabian Sea

The American Forecasting Center began referring to the possibility of a tropical condition forming in the Arabian Sea during the beginning of the second third of this month, and it expected that the tropical condition would develop and move to affect the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, and Yemen in particular.

Arab Weather notes that these forecasts are considered far-reaching and inaccurate due to the long period of time and the high probability of changing weather factors and data, negatively or positively, and Arab Weather will issue the necessary reports according to developments.

Conditions for the formation of tropical states in the Arabian Sea

When delving into the details of the tropical situation , it is necessary to know what conditions must be met in order to facilitate the process of atmospheric forecasting and to research the possibility of thunderclouds developing into an air system or not.

First: Surface temperature and depth of water bodies:

The growth and development of tropical conditions depends mainly and largely on the presence of a water body with a depth of more than 60 meters and a water temperature of 27 degrees Celsius or more, and hot water is considered the operating fuel for this tropical system.

Returning to the Arabian Sea, we find that the surface water temperature reaches 29-31 degrees Celsius, which is very suitable and ideal for the process of developing the weather situation, and the depth of the water in the Arabian Sea reaches 3-5 km. These conditions are very suitable.

Second: Wind Shear

One of the important and basic things in the process of developing tropical conditions is the weakness of the shear winds, and shear winds are defined as the change in the speed and direction of the winds in both vertical and horizontal directions, as these winds weaken and limit the vertical growth of cumulus thunderclouds, meaning that they hinder the process of increasing the thickness Clouds, thus becoming shallow and stratified, weaken the orbital system.