Under Monitoring: Numerical Models Monitor Possibility of Tropical Case Formation in Arabian Sea Around Mid-October

From the Arab Weather Center - Global numerical maps resulting from what is called computer simulation, including the European numerical model based on artificial intelligence, indicate the possibility of a tropical state forming in the eastern Arabian Sea around mid-October, as the second seasonal disturbance period began in the Arabian Sea, which lasts for the months of October and November and is known as the season following the activity of the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea.

How accurate is the numerical model and what is the probability that these predictions will come true?

Experts at the Arab Weather Center indicated that the European numerical model based on artificial intelligence technology is still new and that it builds its forecasts based on artificial intelligence by collecting and processing large amounts of weather data from multiple sources and uses advanced techniques and statistical models to analyze data and extract historical patterns to determine the impact of different factors on the weather. However, despite the model achieving good accuracy since its release, it is still of lower quality than traditional models.

The specialists at the Arab Weather Center confirmed that the probability of the formation of this tropical system is medium and about 50%, as the expectations of the European numerical model are supported by other numerical models that confirm this probability. However, the relatively long time period and the complexity of such weather systems make it too early to be certain of the formation of this tropical system.

The forecasting staff at the Arab Weather Center issued the seasonal bulletin earlier in September, which included a high probability of the formation of a tropical system in the Arabian Sea during the second season of tropical activity. To read the full bulletin, click here.