Climate change is turning African rivers into hotbeds of conflict

Arabia Weather - Almost all of Africa's major river basins have become a source of conflict over the past two decades. Agricultural yields on the continent are expected to decline by up to 50% in the coming years due to diminishing “traditional” water sources. This information is drawn from the 2023 State of the Africa Environment Report released in Nairobi, which emphasizes that climate change and environmental degradation play an important role in this context.

At the same time, the report notes that environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity are affecting the African continent disproportionately. There is a loss of 4 million hectares of forest every year, which is twice the global average.

The migration of more than 50 million people due to environmental degradation

This shift has partly contributed to the migration of more than 50 million people from degraded areas of sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe by 2020, according to the report by the Indian Center for Science and Environment (CSE) released in Nairobi. The report also showed that all of the continent's vital water basins are experiencing distress and disruption due to unsustainable use of resources and the effects of climate change, which has led to them becoming hotspots of competition for water.

The basins include Lake Chad, shared by Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Niger, and the Nile River, shared by Egypt, Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia; Lake Victoria, shared by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania; The Niger River is used by local communities in Niger, Mali and Nigeria.

The list also includes the Congo River Basin, a shared resource used by Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, and the Lake Malawi Basin shared by Tanzania and Malawi. Examples also show that conflicts over the Lake Chad Basin began in 1980, and that water bodies have diminished by 90 percent since the 1960s due to overuse and the effects of climate change.

Over the years, Lake Chad has supported the drinking water, irrigation, fishing, livestock and economic activities of more than 30 million people, and is vital for indigenous and rural communities in one of the poorest countries in the world. However, climate change has fueled massive environmental and humanitarian crises in this region.

The report notes that international organizations and regional governments have long ignored the link between climate change, community violence and forced displacement of civilians.

“Conflict between herders and farmers has become common as a result of the loss of means of livelihood and the movement of families dependent on the lake to other areas in search of water,” the report adds.

Conflicts in the Congo Basin began in 1960

The report reviews that conflicts in the Congo Basin began in 1960, and that this basin suffers from multifaceted crises, including forced displacement, violent conflicts, political instability, and the effects of climate change.

On the other hand, the report traces conflicts in the Niger Basin back to 1980, and attributes disputes over this basin in part to climate change, with “damage to agricultural land and restrictions on access to water” among the main causes of conflicts. Regarding the Nile River, disputes began around 2011 due to Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam, which raised Egypt’s concerns about its impact on water flow.

Conflicts over Lake Turkana's resources have arisen relatively recently

Disputes over Lake Turkana's resources have arisen relatively recently, dating back to 2016, when it was noted that 90% of the lake's water comes from the Omo River in Ethiopia. Rising temperatures and lack of rainfall have resulted in the size of the lake in Kenya decreasing. In order to survive, Ethiopian pastoralist tribes began following the waters, sparking tribal conflicts with their Kenyan counterparts. The construction of the third Gilgel Gebe Dam in Ethiopia on the river contributed to the escalation of tensions.

The report indicates that in 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa were exposed to increasing pressure on water resources due to climate change. It warns that in some countries, agricultural productivity could fall dramatically by up to 50 percent due to the drying up of traditional water sources such as lakes, rivers and wells.

“The way Africa's water resources are managed will play a crucial role in determining the future of water security both locally and globally. Africa has aquifers containing approximately 0.66 million cubic kilometers of water. This figure exceeds the annual renewable freshwater resources stored in dams and rivers by more than 100 Once."

Environmental degradation in Ethiopia

For example, let us take Ethiopia as a case study. The report notes that Ethiopia, known as the “water tower” of the continent, faces enormous challenges in the form of falling water levels in lakes and rivers.

Africa is considered one of the largest continents in the world in terms of population and area, and contains a quarter of the animal and plant species on the planet. However, the continent is witnessing the extinction of many species and the decline of biodiversity at rates higher than other rates in the world.

As a result, statistics show that 35 percent of all deaths caused by extreme weather, climate events or water scarcity in the world over the past 50 years have been in Africa. Africa is expected to account for 40 percent of the world's total migration due to climate change.

Migrations around the world due to climate change

While the Global South is expected to bear the largest share of internal migration due to climate change, the causes and drivers may vary from one region to another, depending on climate change-related issues such as water scarcity or rising sea levels. However, the report indicates that water scarcity will be the main driver behind overall migration.

For example, the State of the Environment 2023 reviews the current situation of chimpanzees in Africa. The report indicates that there are only between 1.050 million and 2.050 million of this endangered species on the continent, and there are groups of it in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon and Cameroon, with the number of other groups declining in Gambia, Burkina Faso, Benin, Kenya and Togo.

However, the report also notes that some African countries are adopting inspiring models of biodiversity conservation, which includes engaging local communities as a central part of conservation efforts. The report asserts that if Africa's biodiversity is effectively protected, it will benefit the entire world. The report also shows that protected areas in Africa, when managed sustainably, can play a role in eradicating poverty and promoting stability and peace.

Sunita Narain, Director of the College of Science and Engineering, noted that South Africa will be most affected by extreme weather events, and this will lead to some areas being rendered unlivable due to these phenomena. Indeed, in some places people are forced to migrate within their countries or regions in search of better and more suitable living conditions.

Explaining the logic behind this report, Nareen said: “We may see and understand the immediate story today, but often we do not get the big picture. The report will help us get that big picture. It will enable us to understand the different aspects of the environment by piecing together a comprehensive picture.” "It makes the links between environment and development clearer. Environment and development are two sides of the same coin."

She noted that the report, which was prepared in consultation with scholars and journalists based in Africa, also contributed to enhancing people's appreciation of the relationship between development and the environment.

According to Dr Mamu Boro Mamu, Director of the National Environment Management Authority of Kenya, the issues raised in the report are of great importance, relevance and impact on the environment in Africa.

State of the environment 2023

The State of the Environment 2023 report addressed, among other things, the challenges of agro-pastoral communities in East Africa. These communities have seen an increase in their migration from arid and semi-arid regions of Africa to urban centers and beyond the continent in recent years, thanks in part to accelerating environmental degradation.

The report stressed that the continent as a whole bears a shared responsibility to manage the environment sustainably, with guidance on the position Africa should take at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai.

East Africa has had below average rainfall for four seasons

Based on the State of the Environment 2023 report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) finds that East Africa has experienced below-average rainfall for four consecutive rainy seasons, the longest such sequence in 40 years. The region was experiencing five consecutive deficient rainy seasons by the end of 2022, and the March-May 2022 rainy season was the driest in more than 70 years for Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. This drought is partly attributed to environmental destruction and climate change.

Overall, the report emphasized that the climate crisis in Africa represents a major challenge affecting the lives of millions of people, who have had to face the wrath of nature for years. This report was prepared with the participation of more than 100 journalists, researchers and experts from all over Africa.

Source: greenfue