Climate report: Sudden surface warming in the polar vortex and its impact on global weather patterns

Arab Weather - Weather experts at the Arab Weather Center said that the latest outputs of advanced numerical computer modeling indicate expectations that the polar dome will witness major changes during the next few days, which will affect computer weather forecast models, making them less accurate and reliable, especially in forecasts for medium and long periods. These changes are represented by the formation of high pressure systems near the northern polar regions, in addition to an expansion in the center of the polar vortex, which causes weather disturbances that include large parts of Europe and the eastern United States.

What's happening in the polar cap?

The polar dome is expected to form high pressure systems in or near the Arctic, causing the center of the Stretched Polar Vortex to expand. This expansion could cause changes in the movement of cold air masses southward, directly affecting weather patterns in large areas of Europe and the United States, where strong winter storms will be present, possibly accompanied by heavy rain and snowfall over the next two weeks.

The effects of warming on the weather in Europe and the United States are represented by severe snowstorms

This change in the polar cap is expected to have a significant impact on weather in areas such as the eastern United States and parts of Europe, where a series of winter storms are expected to bring heavy rain and snow. Additionally, there are expected to be periods of extreme cold, with temperatures falling below normal in many places.

Arctic warming will occur in the lower atmosphere.

The strangest part of this phenomenon is that the warming near the surface in the Arctic appears to be separate from the upper layers of the atmosphere, especially the stratosphere. Usually, Arctic warming coincides with interaction with the upper layers of the atmosphere, but this time, the projections indicate that the surface warming is only occurring near the surface. At the same time, the upper layers are experiencing colder than usual temperatures, which raises questions about how this will affect the global climate system.

The relationship of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) waves to the warming of the Arctic near-earth layers

Another possible explanation for this surface warming in the Arctic is the influence of multiple factors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is concentrated in certain areas of the tropical oceans, especially areas 7, 8 and 1. These waves are considered one of the factors that affect the climate cycle in the polar regions, and it is also promising that this warming will be rapid and temporary and will not interact with the upper layers and develop the phenomenon of sudden stratospheric warming. However, this remains possible if the heating in Canada continues (the phenomenon of Canadian Warming), which in some years leads to the reversal of this warming to the upper layers.

The impact of global warming on the weather in the eastern Mediterranean basin

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center said that the movement of air pressures over the North Pole in this case means that polar air is concentrated in the high latitudes and Atlantic storms are activated as a result of the passage of very cold air masses of polar origin towards the warmer waters of the Atlantic Ocean, as we mentioned above.

Some cold upper basins also reach lower latitudes, thus affecting southern Europe and crossing the waters of the western and central Mediterranean, causing weather disturbances and thunderstorms, especially in the Balkan countries. During the crossing of the upper basins, unstable weather conditions arise in areas in the eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula amid the absence of major winter weather patterns.

And God knows best.