Climate report: La Niña phenomenon is heading towards a neutral pattern and is expected to continue until the summer of 2025 (details)

Arab Weather - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a new report on the latest developments in the La Niña phenomenon and its impact on global climate. According to the report issued by NOAA, La Niña conditions will continue until February 2025. The report indicated that La Niña will move towards ENSO-neutral conditions next month, i.e. April 2025, and will continue until summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

What is the La Niña climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean?

La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is characterized by cooler surface waters in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, and stronger-than-average trade winds, leading to increased rainfall and cloud cover in areas such as Indonesia, while the central Pacific experiences dry conditions. In contrast, El Niño represents the opposite of La Niña, with surface waters warmer than usual and trade winds weaker than average.

The NINO-3.4 index is the primary measure NOAA uses to assess El Niño conditions, and recent data shows that the temperature in this region was -0.6°C in February 2025, reflecting the persistence of La Niña conditions, albeit relatively weak compared to usual norms.

The atmospheric business cycle (Locker cycle) remains strong.

NOAA added in its report that the atmospheric circulation, known as the Locker Circulation, remains strong, with increasing clouds and rain over Indonesia, indicating the continued influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, NOAA noted that temperature changes indicate warmer-than-average temperatures in other oceans around the world, an unusual pattern.

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center said that the Locker Circulation is simply a continuous movement of air between east and west over the Pacific Ocean, and it greatly affects the climate in this region. When the Locker Circulation is strong (as is the case with La Niña), rainfall is heavy in the western regions of the Pacific Ocean, and conditions are dry in the eastern regions.

Conversely, when the circulation weakens (as in El Niño), the opposite happens, with rain falling in the eastern regions and the weather becoming drier in the west.

There is a 75% chance that La Niña will turn neutral within the next month.

According to forecasts, there is a 75% chance that neutral conditions will prevail between March and April 2025, with other forecasts indicating that La Niña will persist for longer periods in the coming months. NOAA explained that this shift toward neutral conditions may signal the beginning of a summer season characterized by stable weather patterns, but at the same time, it leaves the door open to different possibilities due to ongoing changes in marine and atmospheric conditions.

In conclusion, NOAA emphasizes that future forecasts indicate a shift in La Niña conditions toward a neutral state, but any new developments will remain under continuous monitoring by scientists and experts at the agency.

And God knows best.