Possible volcanic eruption in Iceland...and the evacuation of more than 3,000 residents in the town of Grindavik

Arabia Weather - Iceland declared a state of emergency, and more than 3,000 residents were alerted to evacuate the small coastal town of Grindavik, as the country's authorities expect an imminent eruption of a volcano on the southwestern peninsula.

And in the details: Scientists in Iceland have observed changes indicating that “magma is approaching the surface” and that the most prominent area of rising magma is located in an area 3.5 kilometers northeast of Grindavik. What are the dangers of this volcano and what will happen if it explodes? Does it affect travel and flight?

Iceland is home to a lot of seismic activity

It's worth noting that Iceland (an island with an area of only 103,000 square kilometres) is home to a lot of seismic activity.

Expectations of a volcanic eruption in Iceland and unprecedented events are expected

Iceland's Civil Protection Agency reports that the country is witnessing unprecedented events, which its population of 360,000 have not seen since the eruption of the Vestmanjar volcano in 1973. This eruption, which began without warning, destroyed about 400 homes.

According to statements by the Civil Protection Agency, which were based on analytical models based on data collected in the area on Saturday, the current magma corridor, 15 kilometers (nine miles) long, extends directly from northwest Grindavik to the Atlantic Ocean.

What if an undersea volcano erupts?

Magma is a mixture of molten and semi-molten rock found beneath the Earth's surface, and can cause an eruption when it reaches the surface, turning into lava.

Experts have shown that in the case of an undersea magma eruption , the eruption is more powerful than on land. However, an eruption on land could pose a greater threat to the Grindavik region itself.

“If the magma interacts with seawater, it could become more explosive,” said Michele Bolato, a researcher at Imperial College London. “If it erupts under the sea, this could cause a Surtsey eruption similar to what happened in 1963 in "Iceland , which led to the formation of Surtsey Island," he stressed, "This eruption has been going on for several years, so this is a possibility."

It is difficult to predict the size of the eruption

Bill McGuire, Emeritus Professor of Geophysical and Climatic Hazards at University College London, noted that at present, there is no direct reason to expect this eruption to be specifically large, but the size of the eruption is difficult to predict.

He added that the evacuated city of Grindavik is located very close to the site of the new rift, and the continued presence of residents there is not completely guaranteed. He pointed out that everything depends on where the magma may reach the surface, but the situation does not look encouraging for the city's residents.

However, there is a possibility that magma does not appear on the surface. Dave McGarvey, a volcanologist at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, explained that it may not break through all the magmatic faults to form an eruption, and only one in three or four of them may do so. He added that the best scenario is that the rock barrier that has just formed cools and hardens, and does not erupt.

However, some effects of seismic activity are already evident . Roads have been damaged by earthquakes in the area, with the Icelandic Roads Administration sharing photos on social media showing crumbling tarmac, broken pavements and large cracks in the road.

After scientists said they could not rule out the magma reaching Grindavik, the Civil Protection Agency evacuated the city on Friday night, although some residents were allowed to return to one area on Sunday under police guard to retrieve pets and essential items.

The famous "Blue Lagoon" geothermal health resort seven kilometers (four miles) north of Grindavik, which attracts tourists to its steaming waters, was closed as a precaution on Thursday.

Pollato added: “Toxic fumes are a real concern, the most important of which is sulfur dioxide, which can be corrosive and cause breathing problems.”

"It's not something we need to worry about in the UK, but locals and tourists could be affected depending on the direction of the prevailing winds," he added.

Iceland's only international airport, Keflavik, is less than 20 miles from Grindavik

Will the Iceland volcanic eruption disrupt travel?

Experts do not expect the eruption to cause a level of chaos similar to that seen in 2010, when Eyjafjallajökull erupted. This optimism is due to the unlikelihood of the presence of ice masses similar to those that led to the formation of the huge ash cloud.

In 2010 , the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano led to the cancellation of about 100,000 flights, negatively impacting the lives of two million people as a result of volcanic ash that could damage aircraft engines and cause power outages.

Regarding the current situation , Lionel Wilson, Emeritus Professor of Earth and Planetary Science at Lancaster University, stated that this is not expected to happen again . Wilson points out that Eyjafjallajökull erupted when there were melting glaciers, which increased the volume of water and made the eruption more explosive. In this context, experts today are focusing on dealing with low-explosive lava, which constitutes the main source of lava flows.

What happened in 2014 and 2021?

Iceland is often home to volcanic eruptions, and although these phenomena often occur in wilderness areas far from populated areas, they are part of the reality of life in this country. In 2014, the Pararpunga volcanic system erupted in the center of the country, producing lava covering 84 square kilometers (32 square miles) of highland, without causing any damage to communities.

In 2021, the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system erupted for the first time in over 6,000 years, posing no threat to populated areas. The area has even become a tourist attraction, attracting people to watch the volcanic eruption and enjoy a unique experience.

Why does Iceland experience so many volcanoes?

Iceland lies on a tectonic plate boundary, where the North American Plate intersects the Eurasian Plate, and they are constantly being displaced apart along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Beneath Iceland is a mantle plume, a region hotter than the surrounding magma. These conditions cause the Earth's crust to melt and thin, making Iceland home to 32 active volcanoes.