Climate study: In light of the development of the La Nina phenomenon next winter, will the Kingdom witness cold waves, frost, and low temperatures?
Arabia Weather - After following up on climate data at the Regional Arabia Weather Center, weather specialists issued an extensive evaluation study on the performance of the last rainy season for the year 2023/2024, which can be said to have been distinguished in the agricultural areas of the north and center of the Kingdom, and in complete contrast in the agricultural areas and dams in the south, which It coincides with the influence of the El Nino Southern phenomenon. However, expectations indicate that the El Nino phenomenon will turn into La Nina and will continue during the coming winter. What are its implications for the rainy season?
The El Nino phenomenon caused higher than average rains and warmer than usual temperatures in the 2023/2024 season.
Specialists at the Arabia Weather Center indicated, after following up on the rainy season and the behavior of weather systems, that the world during the 2023/2024 season was witnessing the effects of the El Nino phenomenon, which is represented by an increase in the surface temperature of the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean and an increase in heat waves in the summer, which contributed to severe heating of the surface of the sea water. The Mediterranean is a result of frequent and prolonged marine heat waves. This was reflected during the winter by increasing amounts of rain due to the warmth of the water and increasing the amount of humidity in the atmosphere. The same weather conditions also contributed to weakening the coldness of the air masses as they passed over the surface of the water, and all of this resulted from the consequences of the El Nino phenomenon.
During the aforementioned season, the Kingdom was also exposed to several weather patterns, some of which are usual in the spring and fall months and not in the winter months. During the winter months, Jordan was exposed to unusual activity and interference of the Red Sea low with winter systems (air depressions and cold air masses), which resulted in several cases. The combination of atmospheric instability brought thunderstorms on more than one occasion, which enhanced the supply of rain totals along with the rain totals that resulted from atmospheric depressions.
On a related level, the Kingdom was affected by a fair number of weather depressions, but it was not mature enough or had scientifically complete characteristics to be classified as highly advanced, such as the fourth degree. Most of them ranged within the second category, and some of them were classified as third, but they were not mature in terms of all characteristics, but they were characterized by some strong weather phenomena that required raising the classification levels.
During the El Nino season: rainfall amounts exceeded their average in the north and center of the Kingdom
When we compare the actual amount of rain falling in this rainy season with the entire annual rainfall average (which ended in the middle of May), we find that the northern and central-eastern regions, in addition to all the Jordan Valley regions, have achieved and exceeded their annual average, while they approached their average in the regions. The central, western and eastern regions, in addition to the southeastern regions. While the entire southwestern regions, including Aqaba, are suffering from a significant scarcity of rain this year, and are considered very far from even achieving a percentage close to their usual rate due to the severe shortage of rainfall in the south this season, specifically the Wadi Musa region.
Climate reading: The La Nina phenomenon is growing, and expectations indicate that it will continue to a large extent next winter
After following up on the latest computer modeling outputs regarding the deviation of the temperature of water bodies from averages, it turns out that the region located on the equator of the Pacific Ocean is still witnessing a clear cooling of the water surface temperature, which means that the climate phenomenon (La Nina) will continue during the coming months with the possibility of... It is expected to remain high during the coming winter 2024/2025.
Arab weather experts have explained that the term La Nina refers to a large-scale oceanic and atmospheric climate phenomenon associated with periodic cooling in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central, eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. The La Nina phenomenon represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle and means that ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.
The La Nina phenomenon will continue during the winter of 2024/2025, with a probability exceeding 80%, according to NOAA.
It is likely, God willing, according to the specialists at the Arabian Weather Center, that the La Nina phenomenon may continue during the upcoming fall and winter seasons of 2024/2025, and the probability of its continuation reaches 80%, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA. But it cannot be certain that its effects will be inevitable in terms of its impact on the world’s climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred. It is necessary to emphasize that these climate cycles are only an integral part of giant patterns that drive global weather systems.
La Nina is statistically associated with the intensification of the Siberian Ridge in the winter in the eastern Mediterranean and with higher than average rainfall in the western Mediterranean.
Arabian weather forecasters believe that the La Nina phenomenon is statistically linked to the intensification of the influence of the Siberian High on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter season. The La Nina phenomenon affects the Arab region mostly with a lack of rain in the regions of the Arab Levant, while the opposite happens in the regions of the Arab Maghreb, where rain increases and temperatures fall below average, and the chance of floods and torrents increases in the regions of the Arab Maghreb, while the chance of drought increases in the regions of the Arab Levant as a result of the control of high altitude. Siberian air force.
Specialists pointed out that La Nina affects the pattern of air currents and global weather in multiple ways, which may lead to changes in temperature and precipitation in different regions of the world. But it cannot be certain that its effects will be inevitable in terms of its impact on the world’s climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred. It is necessary to emphasize that these climate cycles are only an integral part of giant patterns that drive global weather systems.
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