Weak rainfall and dry soil in large parts of Egypt, the Levant and Iraq

Arab Weather - The region has witnessed a clear weakness in rainfall amounts since the beginning of the current season, as rainfall amounts record numbers much lower than usual rates. Current data indicate that the season's rainfall performance is very weak, reflecting a sharp decline from normal levels for this period of the year. This is currently attributed to a group of influential weather factors.

What is meant by rain performance and what are the reasons that made it very modest in the Levant, Egypt and Iraq?

Rainfall performance is a term used to evaluate the amount of rainfall during a rainy season compared to the assumed normal. When rainfall performance is described as poor, it means that rainfall is much lower than normal, leading to negative impacts on agriculture and water resources. Conversely, if performance is good, it indicates that rainfall has reached or exceeded seasonal averages.

Rain performance is classified as very modest in the Levant, Egypt and Iraq, with specialized systems monitoring soil moisture levels indicating that the soil in various regions of Egypt, the Levant and Iraq is witnessing unusual dryness during such a period. Arab Weather experts explained that the reason for the weak rainy season is that the shape of the weather systems in the northern hemisphere was causing cold air masses to rush into the Kingdom and the eastern Mediterranean with a dry axis, meaning that the cold air masses did not cross large water bodies and were taking a continental path accompanied by an extension of the Siberian high, which resulted in cold and frost waves that occurred in late November and mid-December.

Reasons for the significant weakness in the rainy season in the Eastern Mediterranean so far

Another reason is the occurrence of a major meander of the polar jet stream towards southern Europe, the central Mediterranean and northern Africa, which leads to the concentration of air depressions in those regions, accompanied by heavy rains and heavy snowfall, which in turn pushes strong air highs towards the Kingdom and the eastern Mediterranean.

In continuation of the reasons mentioned, the weakness of the rainy season is due to the development of a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean, specifically off the coast of Peru, called La Nina, which means a cooling of the waters of the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean and a decrease in the water temperature below the average, which was reflected in the region by the intensification of the high-pressure systems that act as a barrier to the advance of the low-pressure systems.

Is climate change the reason for the weakness of the current rainy season?

In answer to this question, we can delve deeper into the matter, as the atmosphere and oceans follow natural cycles that extend from 5 to 30 years, as they produce certain weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. At the same time, we are witnessing the phenomenon of global warming, which has worsened since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1840 until the present day. During this period, humans have contributed significantly to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions that trap heat in the atmosphere and radiate it back to the Earth, resulting in an increase in temperatures of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius.

Arab Weather explains that although the phenomenon of global warming has been around for many years, the weather changes we are witnessing now are largely related to the temperature of the ocean surface and the distribution of air masses around us. However, it cannot be said with certainty that climate change is the main cause of the weak rainy season, especially since the region's climate fluctuates in terms of rainfall amounts in the winter seasons. It also cannot be ignored that global warming has contributed to increasing extreme weather conditions in the region, God willing. Referring to historical data, we find that the weak rainy season we are experiencing is not unusual or exceptional, but rather it has happened in previous periods and will be repeated, God willing, in the future.

And God knows best.