The Arabian Peninsula Winter Seasonal Bulletin 2020

Seasonal weather forecast for the Arabian Peninsula

Summer 2024: The heat is expected to gradually increase as the summer passes, and wet waves will be observed, leading to some rain events, specifically in the months of July and August.

Arabia Weather - Arabia Weather presents to you the expected seasonal weather forecast during the months (June, July, and August) for the year 2024.

Release: May 2024

Issuing these forecasts depends on studying the behavior of temperature and atmospheric pressure in the northern hemisphere, including the atmosphere and major bodies of water, and integrating those forecasts with global monitoring centers to produce the highest possible forecast accuracy.

Arab weather experts in the Scientific Research and Development Department have developed scientific methods that are considered the first of their kind in the Arab world and the world, as they rely on artificial intelligence in forecasting the coming months, by developing complex mathematical algorithms and equations to reveal the behavior of the atmosphere and correct long-range weather forecasts.

In contrast to the daily weather bulletin, these bulletins focus on listing the general weather condition during a month, where their goal is to know the deviation of rainfall amounts and temperatures from their general averages. Many meteorologists in the world are busy trying to solve the mystery of achieving accurate seasonal forecasts by conducting a lot of research in this regard, part of which the Arabia Weather team participates in.

The desired benefit of the quarterly bulletins lies in helping various sectors in early planning for both the fall and winter seasons, especially the agricultural sector, which builds its agricultural plans on these indicators, which sometimes help in reaping and making profits by exploiting this information, in addition to many other sectors that Benefiting from these forecasts, such as the commercial sectors, the apparel sector, the energy sector, and others.

Aerial maps

The most important expected weather phenomena

Expected distribution of weather systems

Rainfall deviation from general averages

Temperature deviation from general averages

General situation:

• The heat gradually increases throughout the Arabian Peninsula during the summer.
• Extremely hot weather, with temperatures expected to reach 50 degrees Celsius on some days in parts of eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, in addition to the desert areas of Oman and the Emirates.
• The possibility of wet flows in the southern Arabian Peninsula, specifically in July and August, is being closely monitored, causing waves of rain in some periods.
• Rainfall is higher than average in southwestern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the Hajar Mountains in Oman, in addition to the mountains of the eastern Emirates.
• Active winds in some periods (northwest) cause heavy dust waves sometimes in the affected countries.
• There are no indications, as of the time of issuing the bulletin, that a tropical state has formed in the Arabian Sea, but this needs to be followed up within the near and medium framework.
• It is not excluded that, on some days of the summer, unusual rain will occur in Gulf countries, and this may include some capitals.

Special weather condition for each month

First month: June 2024

General situation: The subtropical high in the upper atmosphere over the peninsula gradually intensifies during the month, leading to a continuous rise in temperatures. Thermal depressions deepen in eastern Saudi Arabia, which leads to temperatures being warmer than their usual levels. In many parts of the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf states, the Bawarih winds are active at several periods of the month and lead to dust storms that lead to a significant decrease in horizontal visibility. Cumulus clouds will also be active, God willing, over southwest Saudi Arabia and western Yemen, but they will be less than usual.

Second month: July 2024

General situation: It is expected that the high air pressure will be concentrated in the high layers of the atmosphere over the northern regions of the Arabian Peninsula for most of the month, and this will lead to:

• Much warmer temperatures in many regions of the north, northeast, and center of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, and the frequent occurrence of heat waves in these regions, while they are lower than their usual rates in the southern regions of the Arabian Peninsula.
• Weaker than usual wind activity in Al-Bawareh, despite expectations that it will occur at periods of the month.
• Monitoring the flow of waves of moisture to the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula as a result of the advance of the imaginary tropical separator (ITCZ), which increases the chances of thunderstorms over Yemen, south and southwest Saudi Arabia, and the mountainous highlands of the Sultanate of Oman and the Emirates, and is accompanied by rainfall of varying intensity, accompanied by thunderstorms and precipitation. Papyrus, which increases the possibility of floods.
• It is not unlikely that cumulus rain clouds will extend to some coastal areas of the southwest and west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia if conditions are created for that.
• There are chances that the south of the Arabian Peninsula, including parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and the Emirates, will be affected on some days by an extension of the monsoon depression/eastern wave leading to rain. It is not usual to receive rain during the summer, but this needs to be followed up within the scope of the near and medium period. .

Third month: August 2024

General situation: The extension of the ITCZ reaches its peak in the atmosphere of the Arabian Peninsula, which leads to higher than average rainfall rates across many regions of the south and southwest of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, in addition to parts of the Sultanate of Oman and the Emirates, especially the mountain highlands. And neighboring areas. The chances of the southern Arabian Peninsula, including parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and the Emirates, also being affected on some days by an extension of the monsoon depression/eastern wave leading to rain. It is not usual to receive rain during the summer, but this needs to be followed up within the scope of the near period. And the average.

God knows.