Oman and the UAE are on a date with Ameer Khair

The latest forecast and various numerical forecasts indicate that the atmosphere of the Sultanate and the UAE may be affected by a groove from an air depression that begins to affect the far north from the evening or night of 19 November and lasts until 22 November (agreed between models) subject to extinction to the date of 25 November (according to the European) may be accompanied by precipitation Heavy thunderstorms on most areas of the north and varying on the central and parts of Dhofar. Here I will explain the factors, features and possible scenarios of this weather situation.

What is a low source and what is its nature?

This depression was formed two days ago after its separation from a deep polar depression in the eastern Balkans in a position called the Rex Block, which is characterized by the continuity of the rainy weather on the areas that affect them, especially with the expectation of a high altitude control over India and the North Arabian Sea. High pressure on the Levant.

What are the distinguishing factors in this case?

According to the model agreement, this case has a high moisture saturation from the surface to the upper atmosphere supported by the Arabian Sea and Africa. This gives the perception that the case will see a wide cloud belt during its impact as well as the availability of an acceptable cooling basin ranging from 10 to 13 - C at layer 500 level. It has a good convergence of upper pressure lines and groove depth which increases its effectiveness on the area

What is the impact range?

Depending on the obvious factors and modeling, the range of impact is good for most northern regions, either between 19-22 or the non-agreed period between 22-25 November.

How long will the weather continue?

There is a clear difference between the two most important models, namely European and American is the duration of the impact, what is the difference?

1.The European model considers that after crossing the deep groove (19-22 November) there will be an undulation of upper atmospheric pressure and the emergence of another conjugate groove between the evening of 22 to the morning of 25 November, accompanied by positive and excellent factors and the flow of rain clouds from the Empty Quarter and the Hajar Mountains throughout that period.

2 - The American model does not expect any other groove associated with the primary groove (November 19-22) and see the stability of the atmosphere and this difference is still and will become realistic in the coming days, God willing, God knows.