Scientific reading: assessing the reality of the winter season and the rainy season 2022/2023 so far, and a look at the expectations of the coming weeks

Arab Weather - As we enter the month of March 2023, we will thus be close to the period of the spring equinox, which coincides with the date of March 21, 2023. And we stand in this report issued by the Regional Arab Weather Center to assess the reality of the rainy season in Jordan for the year 2022/23 (which It starts climatically in Jordan in October and ends in May) in addition to comparing it with previous seasons.

In order to assess the reality and performance of a particular rainy season, we have to look at several axes, namely:

• The number of depressions that affected the Kingdom during the rainy season, and a comparison of their number and strength with previous seasons.
• And rain performance in the various governorates of the Kingdom.

First: The governorates’ rain performance relative to what is supposed until 3-1-2023

Rain performance is defined as the percentage of the amount of cumulative rainfall that falls compared to the amount of cumulative precipitation that is assumed to fall until a certain date, which is calculated based on what was recorded on the ground during the past thirty years. And when comparing what has been achieved of the actual amount of rain falling in this rainy season, we find that the rainfall rates are still today (1-3-2023) below the required level in most regions of the Kingdom.

And the data of the Jordanian Meteorological Department show that despite the good amounts of rain that the Kingdom witnessed in the first week of February, the rainy season is below the general average rainfall in most regions to date. For example, the rain performance in Irbid reached about 86%, while In Ajloun and Jerash, it ranged between 64% and 73%, while the rain performance increased in Al-Balqa, the capital, and all central regions, recording good values that ranged between 87 and 98%. However, it decreased significantly in the southwestern regions, recording between 50 and 69%. Despite the excellent start of the rainy season in these regions.

And this data shows that some of the governorates of Jordan have recorded an excellent performance for the rainy season up to this moment, in terms of exceeding the presumed rainfall rates to date in some central, eastern and southern regions. , while the Aqaba station recorded 21.5 mm of rain since the beginning of the rainy season, with a performance of 120% compared to the assumed average, but these areas have a low rate of rain when compared with the northern or central regions.

And the specialists of the Arab Weather Center believe that despite good amounts of rain falling in some regions of the Kingdom, most of the rain came in two batches during the rainy season, which negatively affects the amounts of water collected in dams and underground wells and the agricultural benefit from this rain. season.

Second: The amount of rainfall achieved in relation to the entire annual rainfall rate

The seasonal averages of rain (from the beginning of the season until the month of May) are calculated based on what has been achieved of the actual amount of rain falling in this season along with the entire annual rainfall average. And when looking at what has been achieved from the entire rainy season, we find that to date, the city of Zarqa and Ma’an have exceeded that, while the entire southwestern regions suffer from weak rain this year. For example, Karak has not yet achieved 38% of the annual rate. Al-Matri, although there are only two months left until the end of the rainy season. The diagram shows the arrangement of the regions in relation to the annual average rainfall they have achieved.

Third: Comparing the number of depressions with previous seasons:

The number of depressions that affected Jordan in the current winter season 2022/2023 decreased significantly and significantly compared to what was the case in previous seasons, as the Kingdom was affected by only 7 depressions since the beginning of the rainy season until the moment, and the first of them was in 7-11- 2022, the last of which was on 8-2-2023, which brought rainfalls and some snowfalls to the Kingdom, so the rainy season can be described as weak in terms of the frequency and continuity of the number of rainy weather cases, as the Kingdom suffered - and still is - from a long rainy outage.

And if we compare the current season with the seasons of 2018/2019 and 2017/2018, for example, we find that the Kingdom witnessed in those two seasons twice the number of depressions in the current season, as shown below:

Fourth: Expectations for the month of March and the coming weeks:

The monthly bulletin for the month of March 2023, issued by the Arab Weather Center, stated that the weather in the month of March will be characterized by the following:

• Early semi-fifty-year depressions, accompanied by fluctuations in the weather between tangible rises in temperatures and excitement of dust and dust, followed by a drop in temperatures.
• The third and fourth weeks, chances of rain may improve in some areas.

More details in the monthly newsletter here.