Indications of the formation of the first tropical case in the northern Indian Ocean in the second season of tropical activity

Arab Weather - The specialists in the Arab Weather Center are following up indicators that form a tropical situation in the Bay of Bengal with the weekend and the beginning of next week, and it is the first expected tropical situation during the second season of tropical conditions activity in the northern Indian Ocean region, which extends from early October to mid-December It is called (post-monsoon), which means the season that follows the activity of the monsoon in the Arabian Sea, and the eastern coasts of India are located on one of the possible paths.

It is expected that the tropical situation will be formed as a result of the rush of an eastern wave from the China Sea to the atmosphere of the Bay of Bengal in conjunction with the retreat of the monsoon winds, which affect the entire Indian Ocean from May until the end of September, and with the rush of these winds and the heating of the ocean waters, the conditions are ripe for the formation of the tropical situation and its later development. Over the next week, God willing.

It is noteworthy that the northern Indian Ocean region witnessed this year a late retreat of the monsoons, as tropical conditions cannot form during the activity of the monsoons, because they cause cooling in the surface of the waters of the Arabian Sea. The surface, and also cause high shear winds (the difference in the direction and speed of the wind or both between two levels horizontally or vertically), and these winds remove the moist air rising upwards.

Conditions for the formation of orbital states

• The presence of a low atmospheric pressure area that attracts winds and causes strong upward rotational air currents.
• The surface temperature of sea water is warm and exceeds 27 degrees Celsius, so that the warm water and the resulting water vapor serve as the fuel that powers tropical systems.
• Weak shear winds, because shear winds limit the vertical growth of cumulus clouds, that is, they hinder the process of thickening the clouds.

The factors that control the course of tropical conditions, God willing

• The trajectory of the orbital state depends on its vertical depth and the extent of its vertical curvature.
• Atmospheric pattern (distribution of depressions and highlands) and the sum of the winds controlling the atmosphere.
• The interaction of the orbital state with its surroundings (such as the terrain).
• beta effect.

Classification of tropical cases.. the most prominent two classifications:

• Tropical cases are classified according to the surface wind speed around the center (according to the Saffir-Simpson scale). 2004, and the classification is considered a tropical cyclone if the surface winds around the center reach at least 64 knots.
• There is another measurement to measure the intensity of the orbital states, using the Dvorak techniques, which depend on satellite images to estimate the intensity of the orbital state.

God knows.