What is a weather forecast?

Weather of Arabia - The science of weather forecasting is one of the expanded sciences in the study of the atmosphere, weather forecasting, the study of weather variables and their analysis to reach results in the form of summaries of the weather situation, which are broadcast to the public in the form of weather bulletins that determine the general human activities according to the expected weather condition. What is weather forecasting and how Weather forecasting is done via the following report.

What is a weather forecast?

It is a science that studies the state of weather through an in-depth study of atmospheric systems and the behavior of atmospheric variables such as temperature, humidity, wind, etc., for a certain period of time extending from hours to days, and weather forecasting is based on probabilities, as it is not an inevitable science, because the entire science is a probabilistic science.

Weather forecasting operations are carried out using computer simulation models, or what is known as numerical models, through which forecasts are elicited and weather forecasts are issued, and weather forecasting can be defined in another way (the science of weather forecasting, is the application of science and technology to know the state of the atmosphere at a later time for a specific location). ).

What are the numerical models used in the weather forecasting process and how do they work?

Numerical weather models are the mainstay in weather forecasting operations, and these weather models are run in global meteorological centers such as the American GFS and the European ECMWF . Aerodynamic in different layers of the atmosphere.

These numerical models are built on huge databases in global monitoring centers, and the mechanism of the work of numerical weather models is done by collecting data from their global centers using satellite images, and weather monitoring stations scattered around the world, in addition to launching a weather balloon that contains measuring devices. Towards the upper atmosphere layers of the atmosphere, and each country is responsible for launching the weather balloon on schedule, and then data is collected from its various sources, and entered into supercomputers , these supercomputers perform mathematical and arithmetic operations, differential and physical equations Huge, it is impossible for the human mind to solve any of these huge equations.

After completing the complex calculations, the super-powered computers issue their outputs, so the outputs are either in the form of maps, or in the form of graphs, and here ends the role of computers and the role of the weather forecaster, where the weather forecaster receives the outputs of numerical models, and analyzes them, with the overlap of experiences. Personal and professional analysis processes that may last for several hours sometimes, and the weather forecaster issues the weather forecast after analyzing and studying in depth the outputs of numerical weather models, to reach the highest possible accuracy in the weather forecast.

It must be noted here that the outputs of numerical weather models may differ from each other, as when the global numerical weather models differ on a specific weather event, the process of issuing weather forecasts increases.

How do weather forecast errors happen?

Errors in weather forecasting work like other sciences, and errors are often in part of the weather forecast, not in the entire weather forecast, and weather forecast errors abound in the winter due to the increase in the number of weather variables that are analyzed and added to the weather forecast, so the error sometimes occurs in one Weather variables, and weather forecast errors are divided into two parts:

1- Errors in numerical models

Numerical weather models sometimes make mistakes in their outputs, nominally that any shortage of inputs leads to a shortage of outputs. An error can occur in an arithmetic process, or in the inputs, which is reflected on the outputs of the entire numerical models of the weather forecaster, and here the majority of forecast errors occur. Weather, which is difficult to detect until late after the impact of cases on the ground.

2- human errors

Human errors are one of the forms of weather forecast errors. The weather forecaster can make mistakes in studying weather variables, or the prevailing weather system in the atmosphere, or adopting only one weather forecast model and not comparing the outputs with the rest of the operating models until the closest result is reached, and adopting the closest result in Attempting to avoid errors, and to reach the closest result, 3 or more numerical models must be studied and the largest proportion of convergence of the outputs must be adopted to avoid or reduce errors.

How does meteorology differ from forecasting?

Meteorological monitoring differs from weather forecasting, as weather monitoring needs equipment, satellite images and weather monitoring stations to know the event and monitor it when it occurs, unlike weather forecasting that needs numerical models, and analysis of the data issued to elicit the future weather condition, which extends to hours, or days, Or weeks up to long-term or quarterly forecasts, which depend on the statistical aspect.

Areas affected by weather forecasting

• Air Navigation Field

All airports in the world use meteorological services centers to provide them with weather conditions and weather warnings during specific periods; This is to avoid surprises that may cause air disasters, God forbid.

• the field of agriculture

The agricultural sector is considered one of the most dependent on the meteorological process, such as forecasting the frost that greatly affects the crops, as well as the amounts of rain and drought.

The daily life and activities of a person

Different weather conditions affect different daily human activities; The condition of the roads is affected, the choice of clothing appropriate for the weather, and making trips during a certain period. These conditions also affect the person's health and the decision to use heating.

The warnings and alerts issued by the meteorological monitoring process help to avoid human being obstructed and prepared for different weather conditions; For example: in the event of snowfall and the formation of ice and fog, the condition of the roads will be affected. Meteorological warnings contribute to determining the most appropriate way to deal with it, such as spraying salt on the roads and issuing warnings.

• energy field

Renewable energy sources depend on meteorology, so investment in solar or wind energy and others can be determined in a specific location based on meteorological studies.

In addition, the consumption of gas and electricity is one of the most important sources of energy, depending on the weather, both in winter and summer, and through forecasts issued by meteorological monitoring, it is possible to avoid interruption of energy sources during cold periods, for example.

• The field of maritime navigation

Maritime navigation depends on weather forecasts, as is the case in air navigation and airports, where ports and marine navigation facilities are constantly provided with weather bulletins, and many other fields, such as livestock, the oil and mineral sector, and many many additional fields.