End of 2024 hurricane season, record breaking

Arab Weather - With this year's hurricane season officially ending on Saturday 11/30/2024, researchers continue to review the unexpected patterns that characterized this season. Despite expectations that indicated a very active hurricane season, the surprise was present throughout the season.

Preliminary forecasts and unexpected events

At the beginning of the year, most meteorologists were predicting a hurricane season due to warmer Atlantic temperatures and the potential for a La Nina phenomenon. With that in mind, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a high-level forecast for hurricane season activity.

The truth about hurricane season 2024

This year, 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes formed, including five major hurricanes. While these numbers were within the upper range of expectations, the start of the season was unexpectedly strong. In June, Hurricane Beryl formed as the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic, a rare occurrence. However, activity began to decline significantly between mid-August and early September, a period that typically sees peak hurricane activity. No named storms were recorded during that period, the first time since 1968 that has happened.

Sudden Rebound in Hurricane Activity

While forecasts had indicated a waning of activity, hurricane activity suddenly returned with Hurricanes Helene and Milton, causing significant damage. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, commented on the phenomenon, saying:

“It was like a switch was flipped, then turned off, then back on again.”

Reasons for the strange pattern in hurricane season

Despite researchers’ predictions of a hurricane-filled season due to ocean warming, La Niña did not develop as expected, affecting storm activity. Several other factors also contributed to the sudden lull in activity, such as the development of tropical monsoons in unusual locations, which dampened storm development early in the season. In addition, the effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation also played a role in influencing hurricane development in later months.

The role of climate factors in hurricane season

While the Atlantic Ocean was at record temperatures, other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, played a role in delaying storm development in some instances. Researchers will continue to analyze these factors throughout the winter using climate models to further their understanding and develop better forecasts for the future.

Record numbers despite disruption

Despite a mid-season hiatus in hurricane activity, 2024 set several records, including five hurricanes making landfall in the United States, making it tied for second-most in history.

• Hurricane Helen: Most Powerful Hurricane to Hit Florida's Big Bend

Hurricane Helen was the strongest ever to hit the Big Bend area of Florida, leaving a major impact on the region and being one of the highlights of the hurricane season.

• Record number of tornadoes after September 25

Since September 25, seven hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the most ever recorded, reflecting increased activity in the region.

Hurricane Milton set a record for hurricane warnings in Florida, adding to the number of devastating tornadoes.

Research suggests that climate change has accelerated the intensification of hurricanes, with wind speeds increasing by 35 mph in 24 hours. This trend has become more common as global temperatures rise.

• Increase in rainfall: 20% to 30% due to climate change

Studies have shown that rainfall in major events like Hurricane Milton has become about 20% to 30% more intense as a result of climate change.

The 11 Atlantic hurricanes that formed this year have seen their wind speeds increase by 9 to 28 miles per hour due to global warming caused by human activities, according to a report published by Climate Central.

Future forecast: More intense hurricanes and higher hurricane categories

Although the number of named storms has not changed, research indicates that a greater percentage of storms are expected to become hurricanes, and the number of hurricanes reaching Category 4 or 5 strength will increase, which is what happened this year.

See also:

The 7 Most Powerful Hurricanes Ever Recorded

The 10 Most Violent Hurricanes in US History

Sources:

nbcnews

bbc.com