The first storm over the Black Sea this year. Will its effects extend to Jordan and the Levant?

Arab Weather - Weather experts at the Arab Weather Regional Center are monitoring the latest outputs of advanced computer models, which show a high probability of a storm forming over the waters of the eastern part of the Black Sea during the coming hours of Monday 9/23/2024. The storm will affect northern Turkey and Georgia and directly southern Russia, accompanied by large amounts of rain that cause torrents and floods, in addition to strong winds that cause sea waves to disturb.

The first rainstorm over the Black Sea this year is forming in the coming hours

In detail, a cold air mass rushed into the upper atmosphere coming from eastern Europe and settled over the Black Sea after separating from the general jet stream circulation. A low pressure area was formed, causing heavy rains in northern Turkey. However, the latest computer outputs show the development of the low pressure system for the first rainstorm of the season over the Black Sea in the coming hours, as the low pressure is fed by the warm surface temperature of the Black Sea, which reaches about 25 degrees Celsius.

Jordan/Fall 2024: Temperature fluctuations and monitoring of chances of scattered rain events that may be extreme at times, especially in the second half of fall

As the storm forms, atmospheric pressure is expected to drop rapidly, and dense bands of cumulonimbus clouds will begin to circulate around the center of the storm, with heavy rains falling on northern Turkey, specifically Trabzon and its surroundings, in addition to Georgia. The areas overlooking the Black Sea in southern Russia will be most affected by this storm, as computer models suggest that the storm will move with direct effects on those areas within the next 24 hours.

Heavy rainfall expected, flood risks on the rise

Due to the formation of thick cumulonimbus clouds carrying large amounts of rain, which may range between 200-500 mm, especially in southern Russia, the risks of floods and the flow of valleys and ravines increase significantly, in addition to the formation of floods and rising water levels in roads and the occurrence of rock and landslides, especially on slopes as a result of soil saturation with rainwater.

This storm is also accompanied by strong winds with speeds exceeding 80 km/h, causing high waves and rough seas, especially in the depths of the Black Sea. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid sailing in the Black Sea during the passage of the rainstorm.

The Black Sea is witnessing a significant warming of the water surface temperature.

In this context, the outputs of computer models at the Arab Weather Center show that as a result of the strong marine heat waves last summer, the surface temperature of the Black Sea is witnessing a noticeable warming, as it has risen above averages by about 4-5 degrees Celsius, and is considered a fuel that feeds the air depressions and cold upper basins coming from Eastern Europe, which may cause the intensification of weather disturbances in several periods in Türkiye and neighboring countries.

Will the effects of the storm reach the Kingdom and the Levant?

Many people may think that any effects of this storm could reach Jordan and the Levant, but the weather forecasting staff at the Arab Weather Center confirms that the storm is far from the Kingdom and even the coasts of the Levant, and is moving in a north-easterly direction, meaning that it is very far. However, chances of rain showers continue on the coasts of Syria and Lebanon and parts of Palestine and northern Jordan on Monday due to the continuation of humid air currents.

The season of sudden weather and temperature fluctuations is approaching. Will this pave the way for radical changes in the weather?

God knows best.