Hurricane Rafael could disrupt four million barrels of oil production in the US

2024-11-07 2024-11-07T08:07:44Z

Arab Weather - The latest satellite images and remote sensing data indicate that a tropical cyclone named "Rafael" has been detected, and is currently classified as a Category 2 hurricane, centered southwest of Cuba, accompanied by maximum winds of about 160 km/h. However, there is a large discrepancy in computer model indicators regarding the expected path of this hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael approaches Cuba

Arab Weather Center experts reported that Hurricane Rafael may affect Cuba in the coming hours as a Category 3 hurricane, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall, which increases the risk of torrential floods and landslides in several areas.

Hurricane Rafael continues to move northwest, with computer models varying on its path as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. However, several US states, particularly Louisiana and Texas, are within the likely path. Models indicate that the hurricane is expected to weaken significantly before reaching the US coast, as it encounters dry winds and enters an area of cold water.

Stop me if you have heard this before in 2024. Hurricane #Rafael is quickly re-strengthening tonight over very warm water and low wind shear. Look at the convective burst on the west side of the center. Will become a Cat. 3 or 4 hurricane in the southern Gulf next few days. pic.twitter.com/Iz4esY2yRA

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) November 7, 2024

Storm impacts on oil production this year

Energy analyst firm Earth Science Associates said U.S. oil producers could lose between 3.1 million and 4.9 million barrels of oil due to the hurricane. Shell and Chevron said Monday they were evacuating non-essential personnel from some offshore platforms to shore as a precaution.

EarthScience expects Hurricane Rafael to have the second-largest impact on offshore production this year, after Hurricane Francine, which knocked out 42% of oil production and 52% of natural gas production earlier this year.