Climate Report | Tropical Pacific Ocean Temperatures Move from Balance to Cooling, Harbinger of La Niña Growth Next Fall

Arab Weather - Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Regional Center are following the latest outputs issued by global maps of water surface temperatures, which have indicated that the "La Niña" phenomenon has recently moved towards a neutral pattern. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have witnessed remarkable stability during the recent period, as the large anomalies that characterize the active "La Niña" phenomenon or the "El Niño" phenomenon have not appeared. This shift to a neutral state reflects a balance in climate systems, which means that the effects on global weather may be less pronounced compared to extreme conditions. But what does the future hold?

What is the recent Neutral La Niña pattern over the tropical Pacific Ocean?

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center said that "Neutral La Nina" refers to a state of balance or calm in the climate phenomenon associated with fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In the case of a neutral "La Nina", there are no noticeable anomalies in sea surface temperatures that are usually considered a strong indicator of the phenomenon. Hence, this condition is known to be neither warm like "El Nino" nor cold like "La Nina", making it a moderate phase. The Southern Oscillation Index is often neither significantly high nor low, reflecting a balance in weather systems, and the trade winds (easters) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are close to normal.

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The probability of the La Niña phenomenon developing by more than 70% during the fall and continuing until the beginning of 2025

The latest climate projections and reports from global centers, specifically NOAA, indicate a 71% chance of a La Nina developing during September-November 2024, that is, during the coming fall. It is also likely, with a high probability of 74%, that it will continue through the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

La Niña is characterized by a decrease in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect global climate patterns in multiple ways. Potential impacts include changes in rainfall patterns, which may increase or decrease precipitation in different regions, as well as impacts on temperatures and hurricanes.

What is La Niña?

Arab Weather experts explained that the term "La Niña" refers to a large-scale ocean and atmospheric climate phenomenon associated with a periodic cooling in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The "La Niña" phenomenon represents the cold phase of the "ENSO" cycle, and means that ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.

The La Niña phenomenon continues during the fall season. What will be its impact on the atmosphere and climate of the Arab world?

According to the experts at the Arab Weather Center, it is likely, God willing, that the La Niña phenomenon will continue with us during the fall and winter of 2024/2025, and the probability of its continuation is high according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). However, it cannot be asserted that its effects will be inevitable in terms of their impact on the world's climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred. It must also be emphasized that these climate cycles are only an integral part of giant patterns that drive global weather systems.

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La Niña is statistically associated with the strengthening of the Siberian High in winter in the eastern Mediterranean and with above-average rainfall in the western Mediterranean.

Arab weather forecasters believe that the La Niña phenomenon is statistically linked to the intensification of the Siberian high's influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter. The La Niña phenomenon often affects the Arab region with a lack of rain in the Levant, but the opposite happens in the Maghreb, where rainfall increases and temperatures drop below average, which increases the chance of floods and torrents in the Maghreb, while the chance of drought increases in the Levant as a result of the Siberian high's control.

Experts have pointed out that La Niña affects the pattern of air currents and global weather in multiple ways, which may lead to changes in temperature and precipitation in different parts of the world. However, it cannot be said with certainty that its effects will be inevitable in terms of their impact on the world's climate, as all likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred. It must be emphasized that these climate cycles are only an integral part of the giant patterns that drive global weather systems.

God knows best.