The state of rain retreat in Jordan and the region

Weather of Arabia - The Kingdom and the Levant region have been experiencing a period of rain weakness since the beginning of Al-Murabaniyah, similar to the past three years during which the region received large amounts of rain, especially since the outputs of numerical models (computer prediction models) indicate the continuation of the state of rainfall until the middle of this month. There is another rise in temperatures over the next week.

Status assessment situation

A stage of exceptional rainy conditions in which the region passes, and temperatures are higher than their usual rates, and there is daily blowing of easterly and southeast winds between moderate to active speed, and the performance of the rainy season is much less than what is assumed during this period.

The cause of the rain retreat prevailing in the region

Rain retreat is known as the phenomenon of cessation and interruption of rain, and since the end of December until this day the rain has been completely cut off from the region, due to the severe flow of cold polar air towards different regions of the European continent, especially the western parts of it, as well as the northwestern parts. From Africa, like Algeria and the Maghreb specifically, resulting in exceptional snowstorms that will affect those areas, such as the expected snowstorm on the Spanish capital Madrid and other parts of Spain.

On the other hand, in such weather patterns, an inverse state of air flow occurs, whereby this flow of cold air is accompanied by another flow of hot-warm air to regions of the eastern Mediterranean, including Jordan and the Levant, and sometimes extends to eastern Europe and western Asia, and this The belt of warm air is currently dominating the Kingdom and the whole region, and its influence will continue during the coming days, God willing.

The relationship of the current rainfall to the snow forecast

The chance of snow during this rainy season is considered statistically high, and the possibility of snowfall has nothing to do with rain retreat. During many previous years, the Kingdom witnessed rain retreat there was snowfall, and parts of the Kingdom were exposed to snowstorms despite the poor performance of the rainy season.

Rain forecasts during the coming period

As previously mentioned, the momentum of rain activity will be, God willing, during the second part of the winter season, due to the expected change in the prevailing weather systems, as an air height will enter the western European continent that witnessed rains and snowstorms last period, and thus the intense flow of cold air will move towards the region. The eastern part of the European continent, the northern regions of the Black Sea and Russia, which leads to the entry of cold and rainy air into the eastern Mediterranean region, including the Kingdom, and therefore we are encouraged by the occurrence of a radical change in weather patterns with the entry of the second middle of January, and that the winter season will return. However, the region needs large amounts of rain to compensate for the weakness that occurred in the performance of the rainy season and the state of rainy depression.

The impact of the prevailing weather situation on the agricultural sector

There are several negative impacts on the current agricultural reality due to the weather conditions that the Kingdom has been witnessing for several days, namely:

1. The state of rain depression and a complete absence of rain.

2. The south-eastern and eastern winds continue to rush to the Kingdom, which adversely affect the crops and increase the likelihood of them contracting diseases and thus damage them, especially in the southern regions. The activity of these winds may affect the greenhouses located in the Shafa Ghoria regions.

3. An expected rise in temperatures in the coming days, and this will negatively affect the crops.

Does this cause concern?

The current situation requires more concern and attention, but we ask God Almighty to change conditions, and we are encouraged by the second part of the winter season, that the cold and rain will return, as we find statistically that during some previous years the Kingdom was affected by many depressions after the Al-Murabaniyah period, which contributed to compensating for the shortfall The rain that happened, and some of the rainy seasons that the Kingdom witnessed after a rainy interruption during Al-Murabaniyah ended with amounts of rain even higher than the seasonal rates.

Previous rain interruptions passed through the Kingdom

Rainfall is frequent in the climate archive of the Kingdom, due to the fluctuation of the kingdom's climate from year to year due to its location on the edge between two climates; The desert climate and the Mediterranean climate, and rain interruptions are frequent specifically in Al-Murabaniah, but there is a time gap between these cases of approximately ten years, as the previous year in which there was a rain break during the Al-Murabaniyah period was in the winter of 2013-2014, which is the rainy season that It began with Alexa snowstorm, and then it was followed by a severe rain interruption that lasted throughout the days of Al-Murabaniyah, and nearly ten years before it in 2003 AD the Kingdom witnessed a complete interruption of rain for a period of 15 days from the beginning of January, and in 1995 the Kingdom also witnessed the same phenomenon of interruption of rain during The square period.