Until mid-November 2024: Very poor rainfall performance, less than 1% of the rainfall season achieved

From the Arab Weather Regional Center - With the middle of November approaching, the autumn season is gradually coming to an end meteorologically, which ends at the end of November. We stand in this study issued by the Arab Weather Center, which includes a comprehensive report to monitor the prevailing rain reality in Jordan until now. The report includes several axes, including an analysis of the rain performance until now, the frequency of weak rain performance at the beginning of the rainy seasons, and the correlation coefficient between the performance of the rainy season at its beginning and the rest of the rainy season.  

The amount of rainfall achieved compared to what is expected so far

Rain performance is defined as the actual rainfall in this rainy season compared to what is supposed to fall, which is calculated based on the average rainfall over the past thirty years. Data from the Jordan Meteorological Department show that the rainfall performance for the current rainy season until 11/13/2024 suffers from a significant shortage in the amounts of rainfall that are supposed to fall for this time of year in all regions of the Kingdom.

The same data shows that no region in the Kingdom has come close to the expected rainfall total, and that all regions of the Kingdom as a whole are suffering from a severe and severe rainfall shortage. Moreover, the southern regions have not received any rainfall since the beginning of the season, such as Aqaba, Ma'an, Tafilah, Karak, and others. The performance of the rainy season did not exceed 10% compared to the amounts of rainfall that are supposed to fall for this time of year, as this percentage is supposed to exceed 90% in normal conditions, while the percentage of what has been achieved from the entire rainy season so far has reached less than 1% only.

The experts at the Arab Weather Center indicated that the areas where dams are concentrated in Jordan (north and center of the Kingdom) also suffer from weak rainfall performance. For example, the rainfall performance in both Irbid and Ajloun reached around 15%, while in Amman it was only 1%, while the rainfall performance was slightly better in the eastern Badia, as it rose to 43%.

Weak start to the rainy season.. Has it happened before?

There is no doubt that Jordan and several regions in the Levant are suffering from a very weak rainy season so far, as the region has not been affected by any major weather conditions that contributed to "significant" rainfall during the previous 45 days.

Cases of rain drought are repeated in the Kingdom’s climate archive, as Jordan’s climate is characterised by significant fluctuations in rainfall from one year to the next due to its location between two climates: the desert climate and the Mediterranean climate.

Statistical climate data issued by the Jordan Meteorological Department indicate that the Kingdom has suffered from weak rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season in about 50 previous rainy seasons out of 100 rainy seasons, which constitutes 50% of the number of rainy seasons. This reflects the extent of the large fluctuation in rainfall performance at the beginning of the seasons from one year to the next. Specialists do not believe that there is a close relationship between the rain retentions at the beginning of the rainy season, such as the one occurring now, and the phenomenon of global climate change.

On a positive note, Arab Weather experts confirm that the final total for the rainy season does not depend solely on the rainfall during the fall, and that there are many seasons in which the fall did not witness any good rainfall, while the final rain totals for the season ended with rainfall amounts around or above seasonal averages.

Causes of the current lack of rain

The main reason for the current lack of rain in Jordan during this period is the absence of weather conditions in both their aspects (low pressures or atmospheric instability), especially atmospheric instability that usually increases during the months of October and November, due to the absence of cold air masses in the upper layers of the atmosphere, which come from Europe towards the region, as the way weather systems are distributed in the northern hemisphere led to these cold air masses rushing towards southeastern Europe without deepening sufficiently towards the Levant and Jordan, which prevented the Kingdom from being affected by significant weather conditions during the past period.

And the mercy of God Almighty remains above all things, and we ask God Almighty to provide us with rain and not to make us among the despairing.