Aerial study: the polar vortex is at its peak and is unusually strong, making the door open to more polar descents towards the region, God willing.

Arab Weather - Most of the global climate centers are watching the behavior of the polar vortex this year, from which the winter air depressions branch, where a radical change occurred in the form of weather patterns prevailing in the northern hemisphere after mid-January, represented by the presence of deep polar depressions on the polar circle. On the contrary, on the European continent, a stubborn air rise dominated in all layers of the atmosphere, which was characterized by an unusually long period of stay in those areas amid warmer and drier conditions than usual.

The computer modeling indicators for tracking the behavior of atmospheric pressure values are still sensing a pattern that is very similar to the values during the month of February, which means that the upper elevation continues to dominate the western European continent supported by a superficial construction of the Azorean high, moving at different intervals to the depths of the European continent To control large areas of it, God willing.

What is the impact of this on the region?

The polar vortex was affected by the beginning of winter by a secondary and temporary warming in the stratosphere that occurs at high altitudes above the Arctic Circle. It is gaining stability and strength, which opened the door to a good rush of polar air masses towards southeastern Europe and later the eastern Mediterranean from several different angles in addition to the United States of America, which has experienced the coldest weather since 2014, not only that, but it is expected to be affected again in the coming days With a historic snow storm (Storm Kenan), God willing.

Although this air system, statistically and dynamically, is considered positive for the eastern Mediterranean regions, the cohesion of the polar vortex largely judges any upper basin with the speed of movement and the lack of depth as required so that cold eruptions remain unsupported by continuous feeding, due to a significant decrease in the column Atmospheric pressure above the Arctic Circle, which results in a contraction of the upper basins towards the higher latitudes and the rotation of polar currents around the deep centers of pressure in the Arctic Circle, especially since the Levant, especially the southern parts of it, are at the end of the moment of the cold basins. However, this air system is unlikely to maintain its strength throughout the days of February, as strong ripples are expected to occur at intervals in the polar jet stream, which is responsible for heat exchange between the polar regions and the tropics.

This is behind the expectations of the "Arab Weather Center" that dry, stable, and perhaps unusually warm weather will prevail in the countries of the Maghreb and western Europe during February 2022, and at the same time and as aftershocks, colder than usual currents will flow to the eastern and southern regions. The east of the old continent reaches the eastern Mediterranean, causing a significant drop in temperatures below the usual rates in the last mentioned regions, and is also subject to rainy depressions, and perhaps some of them are cold enough to cause snowfalls in some areas. But due to the presence of other factors that influence the formulation of weather patterns, it is also expected that the shape of the prevailing weather pattern in the second half of the month will be complex and represented by a large accumulation of polar cold in the eastern European continent. This requires the fulfillment of many other conditions, which can only be felt in the short term at that time, God willing.

The relationship of ozone to the cohesion of the polar vortex

According to the processed data issued by the global centers, a remarkable and record decrease in the temperatures of the stratosphere was observed in the Arctic, which has not occurred since 2016 amid a large accumulation of ozone gas. The ozone gas accumulating at the pole is a type of oxygen as it cools the air currents. These conditions are affected by the behavior of the Rossby waves that make up these conditions in the lowest stratosphere, which are the formations of depressions and air heights, God willing.

Previous years were similar to the same weather conditions

These weather conditions, if statistically compared to previous years, are similar to the conditions of the polar vortex (without taking the rest of the transactions), here the possibility of the rainy season ending with rains higher than the average in the Levant, and perhaps these years 2019/2020, but it is worth noting that Crystallization of the atmospheric system results from the sum of many factors and weather phenomena in the northern hemisphere. In complete contrast, all regions of the Arab world witnessed the past year (2020/2021) the consequences of the weakening of the polar vortex at that time, so that the Levant, for example, witnessed rainy conditions separated by time and geographically, separated by warm waves, which resulted in a large variation in temperatures from time to time. .