Earth's temperatures are on the brink of the abyss...what's next?

Arabia Weather - Earth's temperatures recorded shocking numbers during the year 2023, which raised the concern of scientists and experts because they believe that what is coming is worse.

As part of a comprehensive scientific report, the Associated Press enlisted the help of more than thirty experts in the field, who were interviewed and communicated via emails, to understand the meaning of the temperature records set during the past year. Most of these experts reported their increasing concern about the climate change that the world is already witnessing, as it is close to exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) barrier, which is the level that the world hopes not to exceed in the near future, noting that this change has begun since prehistoric times. Industry.

“Last year's rising temperatures were a powerful message from Mother Nature,” said Katherine Jacobs, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona. Scientists have confirmed that rising air and water temperatures make deadly and costly weather phenomena, such as heat waves, floods, droughts, storms, and forest fires, more severe and impactful.

Average global temperatures smashed the previous record by about a quarter of a degree Celsius (0.15°C), a significant difference according to estimates from two leading US scientific agencies, as well as the UK's Met Office.

Many scientists confirmed that uncertainty dominated climate phenomena during the year 2023, as they wondered whether the human impact on the climate and the natural “El Niño” phenomenon had been exacerbated by unexpected changes, or perhaps there were unknown and more influential factors.

Scientists have indicated that if ocean temperatures, including deep waters, continue to set records next summer, as they have in 2023, this would be a worrying sign.

Most of the scientists who responded to the Associated Press poll explained that the increase in gaseous emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels is the main and most influential reason for the acceleration in global temperature rise, which humanity may witness for the first time. They pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon is considered the second most important factor, in addition to the presence of other factors.

The problem with 2023, NASA's Schmidt reported, is that it was a very unique year, and the more closely examined it became, the more clarity seemed to fade. She stated that part of this determination is related to the timing of the start of the major heat wave that year, as Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Service in Europe, confirmed that temperatures rose by 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Burgess noted that deep ocean temperatures, which play an important role in determining global temperatures, are trending higher in the same way. Last year, James Hansen, considered one of the pioneers in the science of global warming and formerly working for NASA, put forward the theory that global warming is accelerating.

Although several scientists contacted by The Associated Press express skepticism about this, others insisted that the evidence so far simply supports a sustained and long-expected increase.

There's some evidence to suggest that the rate of warming over the past decade, or something similar, has been a little faster than the previous decade or so, explained Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. However, he stressed that this is very much in line with expectations that the rise in temperatures may accelerate at some point, especially when particulate pollution in the air decreases.

According to estimates from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average global temperature in 2023 will be about 59.12 degrees Fahrenheit (15.08 degrees Celsius). This shows an increase of about 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit (0.15 degrees Celsius) from the previous record set in 2016.

“It appears as if we have jumped off the ladder of normal global temperature increases to a slightly warmer regime,” said Ross Vause, head of global monitoring for NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. He explained that he is witnessing an acceleration in temperature rise.

NASA and the UK Met Office have recorded a slight increase in temperatures since the mid-19th century, at 2.5°F (1.39°C) and 2.63°F (1.46°C) respectively, with records dating back to 1850.

The World Meteorological Organization, which compiled the data it announced on Friday, linked Japanese and European calculations released earlier this month to estimate temperatures in 2023 at 1.45 degrees Celsius (2.61 degrees Fahrenheit), making it the warmest since the start of the industrial revolution. .

Source: al-ain