What is the relationship between stratospheric warming and the weakness of autumn weather systems in the Levant region?

Arab Weather - Weather forecasts and numerical model outputs in Arab Weather still indicate the weakness of the autumn weather systems affecting the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant in general. This is clearly evident in the weak rainfall in all countries of the region and its confinement to coastal areas, in addition to the absence of cases of instability so far.

Weather forecasters at "Arab Weather" said that the nature of weather systems in the northern hemisphere and the behavior of the atmosphere still imposes on the eastern Mediterranean region and the Levant a weak and sterile weather system in terms of rain. This weather system is represented by the formation of a high-pressure system around the Arctic Circle resulting from the warming in the stratosphere and the restriction of the rush of cold air masses towards the north, west and center of the European continent.

What is stratospheric warming and how does it affect the weather system in the Northern Hemisphere?

Stratospheric warming refers to the rise in temperature of the upper layers of the atmosphere (the stratosphere), where the polar vortex responsible for the movement and direction of the polar jet stream is active. Increased heating in this layer leads to an increase in its temperature and consequently an increase in atmospheric pressure and a weakening of the polar vortex in the stratosphere.

A weak polar vortex means a weak jet stream and an inability to contain cold air around the Arctic Circle, and thus the polar jet stream and cold air descend from high latitudes to medium latitudes and perhaps to low latitudes. This reflection may be clearly seen in the movement of the polar vortex in the lower layers of the atmosphere close to the Earth's surface (the troposphere), as the formation of a high pressure system around the North Pole pushes cold air below this high pressure system and thus its recession in the regions of northwest and central Europe sometimes and western America.

What is the relationship between stratospheric warming and the weakness of autumn weather systems in the Levant region?

Weather forecasters at "Arab Weather" said that the Arctic High forces the cold polar air in the Arctic Circle to descend below it and turn back to the Arctic Circle. This process often leads to the polar air heading towards western America and western and central Europe. This is reflected in the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant region on the continued extension of the tropical high towards the region and its control and imposition of stable weather most of the time. Sometimes some upper basins remaining from the activity of cold air masses in central and western Europe succeed in approaching the region, causing a decrease in temperatures and perhaps some rainfall, which is often concentrated on the eastern Mediterranean coasts.

It seems that the general indicators point to the continuation of the same weather system in the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant until the middle of October at least, represented by the continuation of temperature fluctuations and weak rainy conditions, with the continuation of weather forecasts that indicate a weakness in the Arctic vortex and the continued control of a high pressure system over the North Pole. We will provide you with the latest developments in the weather conditions as soon as they are issued, and God Almighty knows best.