What is the relationship between the La Niña phenomenon and the early cold wave that hit the region, and does this herald more cold waves?

Arab Weather - The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the north of the Arabian Peninsula witnessed in the last week of November a very cold Siberian wave that was unusual for this time of year, accompanied by an atmosphere that can be described as being inspired by the depths of winter, while several weather monitoring stations in the Levant region recorded temperatures below zero degrees Celsius as an exceptional weather event at this time of year, especially since the region is still in the autumn season, climatically and astronomically.

La Niña is developing slowly and weakly, but what does it have to do with the early cold snap that hit the region?

According to the latest reports from NOAA, climate model outputs indicate a 60% chance that the weak La Niña in the tropical Pacific will continue to develop slowly over the coming months. The phenomenon is expected to continue until January-March 2025, which could impact global weather patterns.

Although the cold wave that hit the region was very early, it cannot be said with certainty that it was the result of the development of the La Niña phenomenon, as the cold wave resulted from complex weather patterns witnessed in the northern hemisphere, where a huge high pressure system dominated the southern regions of the European continent and the North Atlantic, which led to the extremely cold air mass wrapping around it and rushing towards the eastern Mediterranean in a semi-continental path.

The La Niña phenomenon is statistically associated with periods of rain interruption and the occurrence of cold waves at various times in the Middle East.

Although it is not possible to assert that La Niña is closely linked to the early cold wave, the La Niña phenomenon is statistically linked to periods of rain interruption in the Middle East region, and to the recurrence of cold waves, as it is linked to the intensification of the Siberian high's influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter. The La Niña phenomenon often affects the Arab region with a lack of rainfall in the Levant, which means that the region may statistically be exposed to more cold waves in the future.

But the opposite happens in the Maghreb regions, where rainfall increases and temperatures drop below average, and the chance of floods and torrents increases in the Maghreb regions, while the chance of drought increases in the Levant regions as a result of the shape of the weather systems that allow the Siberian high to expand.

God knows best.