By mid-November 2021: only 1% of what has been achieved in the rainy season and rainy performance raise the alarm

Arab Weather - With the mid-November of this year (2021), the data of the Jordanian Meteorological Department showed that the percentage of the season achieved so far was only 1%, while the same data indicated that the performance of the rainy season did not exceed 18 % compared to the amounts of rain that are supposed to fall for this time of the year, where it is assumed that this percentage in normal conditions is more than 90%.

These data and values indicate that the danger stage has approached, which is represented by a general state of drought, and the Kingdom and the Levant region have been going through a stage of weak rain since the beginning of this fall, as Jordan and other countries in the region suffer from a significant shortage in the quantities of rain that are supposed to fall for this time of the year. And in light of warnings and concerns about the water situation in Jordan.

The following is a new report issued by the Arab Weather Center diagnosing the rainy situation in Jordan:

First: The amount of rainfall achieved relative to what is assumed until 11-15-2021

The statistical report on rain shows that most regions of the Kingdom have recorded very modest rain performance until now, when comparing what was achieved from the actual amount of rain that fell in this rainy season with what is supposed to fall (which is calculated based on what was recorded on the ground during the past thirty years ), we find that no region has exceeded the assumed rainfall total, and that all regions of the Kingdom as a whole except Tafila and Karak suffer from severe and severe rain scarcity, and the same statistical report shows that the rain performance in the northern region amounted to about 20%, while the rain performance decreased significantly in The capital and all central regions recorded modest values of 10%, and the Wadi Musa region, for example, has not achieved any significant rainfall until now.

Arab Weather believes that the current situation requires more concern and attention and preparation for what is worse, but we ask God Almighty to change the situation, and in a positive matter, Arab weather specialists confirm that the final total of the rainy season does not depend on the rain that falls only during the autumn season, and that there are many seasons Autumn did not witness any good rainfall, while the final rain totals of the season ended with rainfall around or above seasonal averages.

Second: The cause of the rain stifling situation that dominates the region

The Arab Weather Center team attributed the rain stagnation to the distribution of weather systems that do not serve the region, as a series of cold air masses rush towards different regions of the European continent, especially the western parts of it extending to the northwestern parts of Africa such as Algeria, which results in the formation of strong air depressions. In those areas, where approximately 500 mm fell in the capital Algiers during the past three weeks, which exceeds the annual average in many Jordanian cities, including the capital Amman, these air depressions correspond to high air pressures on the Arab Mashreq, so that the Levant, including Jordan, is a coverage area Warm thermal conditions, so that dry and stable weather prevails and temperatures are higher than their normal rates most of the time. The regions of the Maghreb are scientifically known as the regions of the opposite, meaning that the weather condition is “inversely” related to the weather in the Levant most of the time.

Third: Previous cases of rain interruption that passed through the Kingdom

Recently, the term global warming and climate change has been widely circulated and linked with the current rain shortage, and here the Arab Weather Center explains that it is unambiguous that the planet is experiencing climate change due to various factors, perhaps the most prominent of which are the natural climatic cycles that the planet is going through, and urban sprawl, along with Along with other factors, but specialists confirm that the precise details of the current raindrop and the special conditions of each region cannot be directly linked to the phenomenon of climate change, and the most prominent reason remains the distribution of air masses and ocean water temperature is the main factor after God’s will.

The Kingdom’s climate data also shows that the nature of the rainy seasons in the Kingdom fluctuates as a result of Jordan’s geographical location between two climates (the desert climate and the Mediterranean climate). Rain interruptions are particularly frequent in the autumn, where statistical climatic data issued by the Jordanian Meteorological Department indicate that the Kingdom suffered from weak or stagnant rain at the beginning of the rainy season in about 50 previous rainy seasons out of 100 rainy seasons, i.e. an average of 50% of the seasons. rainy;

Fourth: Forecasts for the rest of November

And the monthly bulletin for the month of November 2021, issued earlier by the Arab Weather Center, stated that the weather in November will be characterized by the following:

• The Red Sea depression dominates the Kingdom during many days of this month.
• Frequent blowing of easterly winds that will increase dust levels in the atmosphere and the subsequent effects on respiratory patients, eyes and allergies.
• Gradual improvement in the chances of rain, God willing, in the second half of the month.
• Monitoring an early extension of the Siberian air altitude at the end of the month, and forecasts of colder than usual weather and a recommendation to be aware of the possibility of frost formation at night in the Badia regions.

However, according to the new weather maps, they show the possibility of unstable weather conditions on November 21 and 22 that may lead to some rain in some areas, but specialists in the Arab Weather Center believe that the current indicators for this situation are characterized by high distrust so far and fear that it will fade From the maps, it is also unlikely that the Kingdom on that date will be exposed to a deep air depression, as is rumored.

We ask God Almighty to provide for us with rain and not to make us despondent