Important - Saudi Arabia | Arab Weather issues its forecasts for the month of October and the first days of the tag.. Details

Arab Weather - Sinan Khalaf - As we enter the month of October, and the marking season is approaching, there are many questions from the Arab weather about the initial forecasts for the weather events that this month will bring, and will the rain performance be good or weak? We will answer all this and more in detail:

October 2022.. A weak start to the marking season and a gradual moderation in the atmosphere during the month

General situation

• Gradual moderation in the atmosphere, especially during the second half of the month, and a decrease in maximum and minimum temperatures alike.
• Relatively cold nights during the second half of the month over parts of the north, northwest and north central highlands of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
• Light fog to fog over several periods of the month on the coasts of the Arabian Gulf.
• Monitoring the possibility of the formation of a tropical state in the east of the Arabian Sea, and it will be followed up in real time if it forms.
• A period of drought / lack and weakness of seasonal rains is expected on the southwestern region for most of the month.
• Scattered cumulus clouds in the last third of the month over parts of the north and northwest of the Arabian Peninsula.

weather maps

The most important weather phenomena expected this month

Predicted weather systems

Rain deviation from the norm

Temperature deviation from the norm

Special weather condition for each week:

First week (October 1-7, 2022)

General forecast for the week

• The influence of the subtropical air rise will gradually intensify on the Arabian Peninsula, with a gradual rise in temperatures in most regions, God willing.
• Cumulonimbus clouds continue to multiply over parts of the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula, including the highlands of southern and western Yemen and southwest of Saudi Arabia, represented by parts of (the Tehama highlands of Jazan, Asir and Al Baha) accompanied by thunderstorms of rain that are sometimes heavy and accompanied by the occurrence of thunderstorms and activity in Dusty surface winds.
• Fog and light fog over parts of the coasts of the Red Sea, eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and some coastal and interior areas of the Emirates.

Second week (October 8-14, 2022)

General forecast for the week

• The polar vortex is expected to activate, in conjunction with a remarkable rise in atmospheric pressure on southwestern and western Europe, which leads to the concentration of cold air rushing towards northern and northeastern Europe to the eastern and central Mediterranean Sea, while the subtropical high is expected to weaken the peninsula. Arabia, allowing the arrival of less hot air masses in the northwest of the Arabian Peninsula, and in the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula.
• A gradual decrease in temperatures during the week, starting from the northwest of the Arabian Peninsula and gradually to Iraq, Kuwait, and north and northwest Saudi Arabia in the middle of the week, reaching Qatar, Bahrain and central Saudi Arabia at the end of the week.
• Cumulonimbus clouds continue to spread over parts of southwestern Arabia, including the highlands of southern and western Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia, represented by parts of (the Tihama, Jazan, Asir and Al Baha highlands) accompanied by thunderstorms.
• Fog and light fog over parts of the coasts of the Red Sea, eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and some coastal and interior areas of the Emirates.
• Monitoring the possibility of a tropical state forming in the east of the Arabian Sea, and it will be followed up in real time if it does.

Third week (October 15-21, 2022)

General forecast for the week

• Atmospheric pressure is expected to rise in important areas of the Arctic, including the island of Greenland, in conjunction with the control of air heights over northwestern and western Europe, which means the activity of the polar cell and stronger refraction of air jets above the atmosphere, and this leads to the rush of cold air masses from the north towards The south is in the form of closed air basins/cut-off basins and mid-latitude depressions over northern, central and eastern Europe.
• Unstable weather conditions are increasing in parts of the southwest and west of the Arabian Peninsula, including the highlands of southern and western Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia, represented by parts of (the highlands and Tihama of Jazan, Asir, Al Baha and Makkah) accompanied by thunderstorms of rain, and may extend to parts of the city Al Munawwarah and Tabuk.
• Fog and light fog over parts of the coasts of the Red Sea, eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and some coastal and interior areas of the Emirates.
• Monitoring the possibility of a tropical situation in the Arabian Sea, and it will be followed up in real time if it forms.

Fourth week and rest of the month (October 22-31, 2022)

General forecast for the week

• The chances of air depressions extending into the high layers of the atmosphere continue on the eastern and central Mediterranean and northern Arabia, with the increase in the activity of the polar cell (the dominance of air heights over the North Pole), which leads to a noticeable intensification of the depressions in the middle latitudes on the north, east and central European continent.
• The northwestern regions of the Arabian Peninsula are affected by a cold upper basin from Egypt, coinciding with the extension of the Red Sea depression to the north, and the extension of the Red Sea depression to the north and west of Saudi Arabia, leading to the dominance of dry and hot weather in general, with the expectation that some cumulus clouds will multiply, which may be associated with rainfall Scattered thunderstorms and active dusty wind movement.
• Chances of convective clouds continue to breed in parts of southern and western Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia, accompanied by thunderstorms of rain, which are sometimes heavy and cause valleys to run off.
• An opportunity to stream some marine sights to parts of Oman and the Emirates.
• Fog and light mist over parts of the coasts of the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf associated with a clear decrease in the horizontal visibility.
• Monitoring the possibility of a tropical state forming in the east of the Arabian Sea, and it will be followed up in real time if it does.

climatic situation

Arctic and Atmosphere:

It is expected that atmospheric heights will affect the northern dome, especially the island of Greenland, which encourages the activity and refraction of the jet streams to a higher than usual rate in the south. At the expense of the cold air rushing from the north towards the center of the European continent in the first place.

This leads to great activity in the depressions of the middle latitudes as a result of the intensification of the Ferrel cell, and in this month, several air depressions will rush towards the center of the European continent, at the expense of the influence of northern Arabia and the Kingdom of Morocco by air heights in the high layers of the atmosphere in most periods.

Later in the month, the western currents weaken greatly on the coasts of western Europe, which leads to a rise in atmospheric pressure in western and central Europe, and the Arctic remains in a negative pattern, which is usually accompanied by a stronger than usual break in the jet currents. A cold air mass is rushing towards Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean.

Pacific and Indian Ocean:

The La Niña phenomenon is expected to continue to have an impact, as expectations indicate that it will remain until the beginning of the new year 2023, and the Indian bipolar index continues in a negative pattern and is expected to remain so this month, and these phenomena affect the distribution of rain around the world in varying proportions,

In our case, the Horn of Africa and parts of the Maghreb will benefit from heavy rains that are higher than the usual rates for the month of October, God willing, in addition to India, the Bay of Bengal and the China Sea, where the expected torrential rains and tropical conditions are higher than usual, while most areas will be in the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant and the Kingdom of Morocco, on the outskirts of weather conditions, and the Arabian Sea will have inactive activity (weaker than usual) during the hurricane season during this period of the year.

Atlantic Ocean:

It is expected that hurricane activity will increase in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and monitor the change in the characteristics of some tropical conditions to stormy front depressions as they move north of the Tropic of Cancer, and usually bring heavy precipitation on the eastern coast of the United States of America and parts of eastern Canada, in addition to the British Isles.

God knows.