Are weather conditions suitable for the formation of tropical conditions in the Arabian Sea during its first season?

Weather of Arabia - The region of the northern Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal still falls within the period of the first season of tropical activity, which is the season known as the season before the humid tropical monsoon winds, which blow at a southwesterly angle and then deviate to the northeast due to the Coriolis force, but are the weather conditions suitable for them to form? A tropical situation for the remainder of the season?

Atmospheric conditions are favorable for the formation of an orbital state, but the numerical models so far do not sense this

Weather forecasters at the Arabia Weather Center believe that the scientific weather conditions for any tropical weather activity within the northern Indian Ocean region, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are favorable for this, as the water surface temperature exceeds 30 degrees Celsius in several parts and the monsoon winds are still in a state of activity in terms of activity. And intensity, and the temperature of the water surface is considered the most important factor for the formation of tropical conditions, as it is considered the fuel that feeds thunderclouds, and through a process called energy release (which, in short, is when warm, moist air rises towards the thunderstorm in the form of currents of rising air, it cools and condenses. The meaning here is that It cools, that is, it loses the thermal energy that it was gaining, and losing thermal energy means providing the thunderstorm with more convection currents necessary for its development until the atmospheric pressure decreases and an integrated orbital system is formed in terms of structure, and this is called the energy release process)

Despite the temperature of the water and other conditions such as (the depth of the water body is more than 60 meters, weak wind shear, which is a sudden change in the speed and direction of the wind horizontally and vertically, and the upper atmosphere is devoid of any other weather activities), remote sensing systems are still No signs of orbital status are observed at this time.

The period of tropical activity in the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean is divided into two periods according to the monsoon winds:

• The first season takes place in the months of May and June and is called (Pre-monsoon), that is, the season that precedes the activity of the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea.
• The second season is in the months of October and November and is called (Post-monsoon), meaning the season that follows the activity of the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea.

This does not mean that there is no possibility of tropical activity in another period of the year, but the previous two periods are considered the peak of tropical activity in the Arabian Sea.

God knows.