A new solar storm... Could the aurora borealis return?

Arabia Weather - The region of the sun that was responsible for the strong activity that led to the amazing aurora borealis scenes earlier last month has returned to rotate towards the Earth again. Does this mean that other parts of the United States will see the northern lights again?

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Could the aurora borealis return?

Answer: Responsible for those mesmerizing nighttime displays was Area 3664, which is now known as Area 3697, whose numerical designation changes with each solar cycle. In an email to NPR:

“But the area has degraded significantly since it was facing land in early May.”

As for current conditions, moderate levels of geomagnetic storms are expected between May 31 and June 1, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center. On a scale from G1 (minimum) to G5 (maximum) , the agency expects the storm's strength to be around G2 , a level that usually causes minor disturbances to systems on Earth. At this level, aurora borealis can sometimes be seen as far south as New York and Idaho.

The aurorae that light up the night sky come from geomagnetic storms, which can be caused by solar activity such as a coronal mass ejection (CME) that explodes from the Sun, sending plasma toward Earth.

The Space Weather Center noted via the X platform:

“A coronal ejection associated with the X1.4 flare, produced earlier by area 3697, likely strengthened Earth's magnetic field late on May 31 through early June 1.”

Will Earth experience another powerful solar storm?

Answer: Dahl says conditions do not appear to be right for the active, unstable solar region to repeat the events of early May.

And he said:

“The coronal ejection is not heading directly toward Earth currently, but it will be more closely aligned with Earth over the next couple of days.” He added: "Coronal ejections expand so widely and rapidly as they leave the Sun and travel into space, that they can affect Earth even if they are not targeting it directly, as is the case with the current coronal ejection that may provide some effects tonight."

As for area 3697, Dahl says it "remains unstable and remains capable of producing additional activity as it rotates with the sun over the next 10 days or so."

“Because we are experiencing longer days now, it will be harder to see the aurora, because windows of opportunity should center around local dark sky times (i.e. 11 p.m. to 2 a.m.),” Dahl said.

And two weeks ago, solar region 3664 capped a string of strong activity with an X-ray flare measured at magnitude X8.7 — “the largest in this solar cycle!” According to the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Our solar cycle has not yet reached its peak; The solar cycle usually lasts about 11 years, and our current cycle, Cycle 25, is expected to reach its peak next year.

“Solar cycle 25 is expected to be a fairly weak cycle, just as strong as cycle 24,” according to the National Weather Service. “Solar maximum is expected in July 2025, with a peak of 115 sunspots.”

Aurora visible in Switzerland tonight

The strongest in 20 years pic.twitter.com/6rVxcVHWTo

— Latest in space (@latestinspace) May 11, 2024

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Sources:

npr