Amazon forests facing drought and the El Niño phenomenon

ArabiaWeather - The Amazon rainforest is currently experiencing three types of drought simultaneously, and these dry patterns include the “El Niño Eastern phenomenon,” the “Central El Niño phenomenon,” and the “Atlantic Dipole phenomenon.”

These dry conditions extend across almost the entire Amazon region and are expected to continue until at least mid-2024. It is noted that the worsening of these dry phenomena is partly due to the effect of global warming.

Amazon drought in 2023

Drought in the Amazon during 2023 is an integral part of the climate crisis, and this situation is expected to worsen both during the current and future dry weather events. It should be noted that the water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, known as El Niño Oriental, is already very high. The temperature of these waters has sometimes reached levels higher than those seen during the El Niño Godzilla phenomenon that occurred between 2015 and 2016.

These dry weather conditions extend to the central Pacific, resembling the situation caused by the central El Niño of 1982-1983. These two types of El Niño affect the northern part of the Amazon, and the eastern El Niño also affects areas in the southwestern Amazon, as happened in 2015 and is occurring this year with very low flows in the Madeira and Purros rivers.

Meanwhile, there is an area of warm water in the tropical North Atlantic, as well as cold water in the South Atlantic. This likely indicates a drought in the southwestern part of the Amazon, as occurred in 2005 and 2010.

Expectations indicate that there will be a delay in rainfall compared to the normal rate during the current rainy season, which is considered drier than usual. This situation could result not only in a sharp drop in water levels in rivers this year, but also in the coming years due to the impact of ongoing drought.

A drought in 2023, which is still ongoing, has caused significant damage, with 154 dolphins dying in Lake Teifi as a result of water temperatures rising to 39 degrees Celsius, two degrees higher than the human body temperature.

Many fish died due to the high temperature of the water, which led to their death, whether as a result of the direct effect of the increase in temperature or as a result of reducing the oxygen content in the water.

There are huge impacts on the population due to the isolation of local communities, the difficulty of navigating the river in many areas, and the loss of livelihoods based on fishing and agriculture.

What awaits Amazon in 2024?

The Pacific Ocean has witnessed a series of notable weather events, beginning with the eastern El Niño and subsequent central El Niño. In this context, the warming of surface waters due to the El Niño eastern phenomenon has been observed in specific regions known as “El Niño 1+2” and “El Niño 3” in the far east of the tropical Pacific Ocean (as shown in Figure 1). The impact of this type of El Niño phenomenon extends to the southern Amazon as well as the northern Amazon regions. It is noted that the eastern Pacific Ocean was already thermally respectable in June 2023 (as shown in Figure 2). This effect continued throughout the dry season, before the impact of the central El Niño phenomenon, where we saw temperatures rise in the region known as “El Niño 3.4” in the central tropical Pacific Ocean.

Since June 2023, the warming phenomenon has begun to move towards the central region of the Pacific Ocean, contributing to the formation of a central El Niño phenomenon that is expected to reach maturity in December 2023 and gradually weaken during June and July 2024. In this context, it is observed that warm waters in the central and western regions from the Pacific Ocean have already contributed to the central El Niño (shown in Figure 3). It is noteworthy that the central El Niño phenomenon has previously led to major impacts, as it caused the death of standing trees in the Amazon region due to water shortages and forest fires, and this happened during the central El Niño phenomenon in 1982 and in another incident in 1997 called the “Great Roraima Fire.” ", which destroyed an area estimated at about 12.5 thousand square kilometers of forest, and the fires were not extinguished until after the rains in March 1998, despite the efforts of firefighters who were sent from Argentina.

Warm waters and El Niño

One of the phenomena that precedes major El Niño events in the western Pacific is the lowering of the thermocline, which is the divide between warm surface waters and cold waters deep in the ocean. This decrease increases the volume of warm water and thus the heat content stored in this part of the ocean. High heat content levels were recorded in the western Pacific in the last quarter of 2022, higher than in the years leading up to the major El Niño events of 1982 and 1997. Warnings about an El Niño event in 2023 were issued in December 2022, and confirmed in early June 2023.

This weather pattern indicates a delayed rainy season in the Amazon region, causing reduced rainfall in the central, northern and eastern parts of the region. The impact of warm temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean is likely to continue until June of 2024.

Due to low rainfall expected in the 2023-2024 rainy season and because reservoirs remain below normal levels due to a major drought in 2023, water levels in hydroelectric reservoirs are expected to be below average during the dry season in 2024, and this portends major challenges for 2024. 2025 too.

The temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean is rising

In addition to the influence of El Niño, drought in the Amazon region is also increasing due to anomalous warming in the tropical North Atlantic.

There is a complex interaction between El Niño in the Pacific and warming in the North Atlantic, and these different phenomena contribute to increased droughts in different parts of the Amazon region. In the Atlantic Ocean, we saw warming in the tropical North Atlantic and a fluctuation between cold and neutral in the tropical South Atlantic in October 2023, indicating the formation of an Atlantic dipole.

The dipole phenomenon is known to cause droughts in areas such as the state of Acre in Brazil and other parts of southwestern Amazonia, as happened in 2005 and 2010. These multiple climate phenomena interact together to enhance and exacerbate droughts in the region and significantly impact the lives of residents and the environment.

Source: greenfue