Clarification: A reading of the possible scenarios for the movement of a very cold polar mass that will rush into Türkiye and the region starting at the end of the week.

Arab Weather - Remote sensing systems at the "Arab Weather Regional Center" monitored a split in the polar vortex into two parts, which led to a large accumulation of severe polar cold in northeastern Europe and another in the eastern United States of America. Specialists at the "Arab Weather" Center are closely following the outcomes of this climatic event by conducting a computer simulation, which indicates an increase in the chances of the flow of very cold polar winds of polar origin directly to Turkey and the region starting from the end of this week, accompanied by extremely cold temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere, most importantly the surface.

A "normal" low pressure system precedes the deepening of the polar cold in the region

The computer simulation results at the Arab Weather Center, which are specific to sensing the movement of this very cold polar mass, indicate that it is expected to be located over Turkish territory by the end of the week, and as a result a low pressure system will form that will affect Jordan as a low pressure system, often classified as normal, on Thursday and Friday, so that temperatures will drop significantly compared to what they would have been before that, and rain is expected, God willing, in several areas of the Kingdom, accompanied by hail showers.

According to the latest data received, part of the cold polar winds will flow behind the low pressure system to Jordan and the Levant, and thus the polar cold will not be sufficient to cause "snow" in the capital or the Kingdom, but it may be sufficient to cause some snowfall on some high mountain peaks if these polar winds coincide with the precipitation.

What comes after this depression and the last week of February?

The same computer simulation outputs of the movement of air masses and systems indicate that the high pressure system in the European continent is expected to deepen and expand northward to reach the Scandinavian countries, forcing the same cold polar air mass to move south again early next week (starting Saturday 2/22/2025). However, the numerical models, which are operated by supercomputers, simulate the movement of the air mass and monitor its possible paths, and we analyze these outputs to extract weather forecasts. Due to the different methods of operating them, these models may show different results, which leads to the presentation of several scenarios that may not be identical, and thus the inevitable result of each scenario presented differs. These scenarios gradually decrease as we approach the period of its influence, especially when we enter the 72-hour range. Statistical and analytical (human) factors also play a role in favoring the most likely scenario to occur, God willing.
When reviewing these scenarios, some of the results of these numerical models indicate that this polar mass will move early next week after rotating over Turkish lands towards the east, moving away towards Iranian lands, bringing with it generally stable weather and very cold weather with waves of frost (this scenario is repeated many times in one season, of course). While other numerical results, which are numerous, indicate that this mass will move towards the Badia of the Levant, which will affect the Kingdom and the Levant with a wide wave of ice and freezing with chances of some random snowfall (and the climate archive is also full of such cases, perhaps the most prominent of which was repeated on more than one occasion in 2020 or January 16, 2022). Some results also indicate that this polar mass will rush directly into the eastern Mediterranean, leading to the formation of an advanced-class low-pressure system accompanied by rain and snow in large parts of the Kingdom (perhaps the last of these lows was on January 26, 2022).
Therefore, the numerical models do not reflect, so far, that there are pure expectations of snow coming to the Kingdom next week, as some may think. The situation is considered more complicated, and the reason for this is that Arab Weather analysts, when making forecasts through a computer system developed in Arab Weather, found that the percentage of the Kingdom’s highlands being exposed to widespread snowfall (snowstorm) is not high in such weather conditions, and that the closest possible scenario from the proposed scenarios is the second, meaning that this does not negate the chances of snowfall over some mountain heights. Therefore, delving into these details and getting drawn into them from now is premature and largely unscientific, and between the impact of these possibilities, the variables of weather forecasts for such periods remain very large, whether negatively or positively.

In summary, it is now most likely, God willing, that this polar air mass will reach Turkish territory starting at the end of the week, and this will impose a significant drop in temperatures on the Levant region and an increase in the chances of rain again, in addition to the occurrence of frost and ice waves. As for the snow, the arrival of this polar air mass to that region is not enough for widespread snowfall, but rather it requires more complex weather systems to cause snowfall, the most important of which is the descent of the polar mass into the water basin from the eastern Mediterranean Sea, so that a regular surface air depression is formed that causes precipitation, whether rain or snow.

Gaza calls for help before the polar wave arrives!

As these signs increase about the polar mass rushing towards the region, this matter cannot be viewed in isolation from the tragic conditions that our people in the Gaza Strip are still suffering from, from a severe shortage of tents and the prevention of the entry of caravans, which will leave hundreds of thousands of families in the open facing the bitter cold. There is no power or strength except with God.

And God knows best.