Climate change | In an event that observed a rare increase in the temperature of the stratosphere over Antarctica, what will its effects on the Earth look like? (Details)

Arabia Weather - It is known that at this time of the year the Southern Hemisphere is going through winter, and as a rare occurrence, global weather monitoring stations have observed important changes in the high layers of the atmosphere in Antarctica, represented by a significant rise in the temperature of the stratosphere above the Antarctic.

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center said that this may happen frequently in the winter in the northern hemisphere of the Earth above the North Pole, but it is rare for it to happen above the South Pole due to the significant drop in temperatures in most layers of the atmosphere, but it seems The consequences of climate change resulting from human activity have already imposed themselves and its effects have reached Antarctica.

First: What is the stratospheric warming that occurs in the polar vortex?

It is known that the polar vortex extends high in the atmosphere, and the lowest level of it is called the troposphere, which is the layer in which all weather phenomena that affect us occur. Above the troposphere extends the stratosphere, which is a deeper and drier layer in which no atmospheric phenomena are formed and is home to the ozone layer.

In general, the polar vortex can be described as a very large hurricane, as it covers the entire Arctic up to the mid-latitudes and is connected across all levels of the atmosphere. The polar vortex is usually seen in the stratosphere at the level of 10 hectopascals, which is about 28-32 kilometers high. The strength of the polar vortex is usually measured by the strength of the winds inside and around it. This is done by measuring the zonal wind speeds (moving from west to east) around the polar circle at a latitude of 60 degrees. The following image from NOAA shows this.

The weather specialists at the Arab Weather Center said that the polar vortex, if it is active and strong, continues to rotate with full force and contain the cold air, making it stronger and more cohesive, while at times there is a disturbance in the movement of the atmosphere that leads to a weakness in the movement of the vortex and its inability to contain it. Cold air usually leads to increased pressure and higher temperature in the polar stratosphere, resulting in what is called “sudden stratospheric warming.”

A look at Antarctic transfer warming and its impact on the Earth's climate

It is known that the climate of the Southern Hemisphere is characterized by opposite weather seasons to the Northern Hemisphere, so while we in the Northern Hemisphere are heading towards late summer, the Southern Hemisphere is still going through winter, which means that there is an active polar vortex there, and below is a special picture From NASA Temperatures in the core of the southern stratospheric polar vortex are shown at an altitude of about 30 km (10 hectopascal level) where the violet line shows a strong peak of Antarctic stratospheric temperatures, rising to their highest levels ever for this time of year.

The following image shows the temperature of the stratosphere over Antarctica. A very strong warming wave affects the heart of the Antarctic vortex and expands deep into the Arctic Circle. The temperature anomaly analysis also shows a strong anomaly in the temperature of this region, which is characterized by higher than normal temperatures, with maximum temperatures exceeding 60 degrees Celsius above average. In the long term.

Atmospheric studies indicate that stratospheric warming in Antarctica may play an important role on the geomagnetic activity of the atmosphere, and atmospheric changes have already been observed directly following this strong event in the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere in the winter of 2019/2020 in the Northern Hemisphere, as it is It is possible that the temperature of the stratosphere over the Antarctic will rise for a long period until it reaches the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, which may result in disturbances in the weather patterns in the coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere, represented by the occurrence of extreme weather conditions in some regions, represented by the occurrence of waves of Heavy rains that may cause floods in some countries, in addition to the receding effect of cold waves in certain areas for long periods, which may lead to snowfalls greater than usual in some areas.

What is the impact of stratospheric warming in Antarctica on Arab countries?
 

The meteorological specialists at the Arab Weather Center are monitoring the consequences of this change in rare weather patterns, but it is difficult from now to determine its effects on the Arab region, as the direct effects do not appear now and we need some time until the beginning of the fall season and the approach of the winter season until we feel These changes, but usually in the years in which stratospheric warming occurred in the northern hemisphere, the greatest effects were clearly visible in the regions located at high latitudes above 45 north latitude, represented by the countries of Western and Central Europe, with increased rainy and cold conditions, while the effects were negative in the region. Arabia is represented by weak weather conditions due to the decline of cold air in certain areas away from the Arab regions, but the matter is more complicated than that and the atmosphere is characterized by the rapidity of the variables that affect it.