Climate change is responsible for `severe drought` in Syria, Iraq and Iran

ArabiaWeather - Climate warming, resulting mainly from the combustion of oil, gas and coal, has mainly contributed to the severe and persistent drought experienced in Iraq, Syria and Iran in recent years, according to a report issued on Wednesday by climate experts.

High temperatures increased the likelihood of drought occurring

According to a study by the World Weather Association (WWA), which analyzes the link between weather factors and climate change, higher temperatures resulting from climate change have increased by up to 25 times the probability of drought in Syria and Iraq, and 16 times in Iran. .

The study also notes the role of “years of conflict and political instability” in undermining countries’ ability to respond to drought, leading to a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

Under current conditions, there is an increased risk that such droughts will become routine, occurring at least once a decade.

Climate change is a major cause of the current drought

Experts from this network explain that the current drought would not have occurred without climate change caused mainly by the burning of oil, gas and coal.

This study covers the period from July 2020 to June 2023, and focuses on regions that have been greatly exposed to the effects of climate change, namely Iran and the Tigris and Euphrates river basin region, which originate in Turkey and extend into Syria and Iraq.

The statement published alongside the study indicates that these two regions are currently experiencing “severe drought” according to the US Drought Monitoring Scale.

The study shows that climate change caused by human activity has increased the severity of this drought, and if the global temperature were 1.2 degrees Celsius lower, that is, what it was before the industrial revolution, the matter would not be this severe.

Frederic Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, says that after good rains and harvests in 2020, three years have passed that were characterized by weak rains and high temperatures, which led to drought and severe impacts on access to water used in agriculture. .

Experts are not optimistic about the future

During an online press conference, climate scientist Mohammad Rahimi of Iran's Semnan University called for better resource management. He pointed out that the region had never witnessed much rain, but the new rise in temperatures came. He explained that evaporation causes significant loss of rain, and with temperatures expected to rise in the future, more evaporation and drying of vegetation can be expected. "I'm not very optimistic for the future," he added cautiously.

In Iraq and Syria, which are two of the largest oil producers, agricultural productivity has declined in recent years in these countries, especially in the former wheat-rich regions. Fishing has also been affected by declining river levels and pollution.

Drought caused the displacement of about two million people in Syria

Drought periods until September 2022 caused the displacement of about two million people in rural areas in Syria, while water shortages in Iran led to tensions with neighboring countries, and food prices accelerated due to declining crops. In Iraq, the country is witnessing rising tensions resulting from irregular water distribution, and one in five Iraqis lives in areas suffering from water shortages, according to a UN report.

The region's "complex water crisis" is a challenge, as many factors intersect, including traditional irrigation methods and rapid population growth, along with "limited water management and lack of regional cooperation", especially with regard to dam management, river water balance in upstream countries and access to Downstream countries.

Reports also warn that prolonged droughts will not be a rare event, as they may occur at least once every decade in Syria and Iraq, and twice every decade in Iran, with the world likely to warm an additional two degrees above the pre-industrial period. This requires the rapid abandonment of fossil fuels to avoid worsening the situation.

Source: france24