Climate news: Stratospheric warming was monitored at the end of the month.. What is its impact on the weather in the region?

Weather of Arabia - Most global climate centers monitor a warming in the stratosphere over the next few days, specifically over the Arctic Circle. This warming, and although it occurs at high altitudes close to 50 km above the surface of the earth, it has a great impact on changing the weather patterns prevailing on the surface of the earth and may represent an important role in the future of the northern hemisphere weather for the rest of this winter, due to its direct impact On the behavior of the polar vortex, from which extends arms that supply the lower latitudes with very cold air. In the normal situation, this polar vortex is coherent and a high-speed western air current revolves around it in a hurricane-like area of low atmospheric pressure and activates the polar jet stream that helps guide weather systems, but sometimes these winds weaken and slow down and may reverse flow and it all happens for more complex reasons.

In our case, most of the outputs of computer forecasts indicate that a severe slowdown in wind speed is expected around the stratospheric polar circle, but it will not reverse so that it remains westerly, i. This slowdown in the so-called western current will naturally lead to a rise in temperatures to more than 50 degrees Celsius higher than their usual rates for this time of the year, and thus enhances the growth of high atmospheric pressures in important areas of the Arctic and in all layers of the atmosphere and That would be enough to cause a shift in the center of the polar vortex.

This warming, which will occur at the end of January 2023, can be said to have become a more frequent pattern in recent years. It is believed that its occurrence is due to the decrease in the amounts of ozone and the annual increase in the snow cover over Siberia, and thus the formation of air heights above it (i.e. Siberia) that works on a vertical transfer of energy and causes a large and rapid heating of the stratosphere in a complex exchange loop that occurs between the layers of the atmosphere.

Based on the foregoing, the polar dome is at the gates of a dramatic change during the coming days in the form of a rise in atmospheric pressures over important areas of the Arctic and a shift in the center of the polar vortex. However, the effects and consequences of this differ on the pattern and behavior of the polar cell and the patterns of Rossby waves, depending on other weather indicators that are prevalent, such as the locations and intensity of Madden and Julian waves (MJO). In this section, colleague Muhammad Al-Shaker explains the impact of these changes on computer weather forecast models, so that they become distorted and low-accuracy. We talk more here about ensample models, which are climate models that are issued in several runs. It is noted that the large discrepancy in the expectations of its members for the coming period due to the state of the atmosphere highly disturbed, as mentioned above.

In spite of the great stability in the weather and the warm atmosphere that the Levant and Egypt are exposed to, which will later extend to Iraq and the north of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where temperatures rise much above their usual rates, due to the intense flow of cold polar air towards different regions. From the northwestern parts of Africa. The Department of Operations Management and Weather Forecasts is closely monitoring, through the technological system developed by "Arab Weather", a radical change in the weather system, starting from the end of this month and the beginning of next February (and in accordance with the monthly weather forecast) so that cold air approaches the eastern basin For the Mediterranean Sea, which means high chances of rain in several parts of the Levant, Egypt, Iraq and northern Saudi Arabia, but the weather pattern may lack at that time the presence of sufficient strong heights in the southwest and west of the European continent.

Attention is drawn to the first days of February 2023, when a strong air elevation advances from the Atlantic Ocean to dominate important areas of the European continent, which leads to the flow of more cold and very cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, and this does not mean that Necessarily, polar depressions are formed, as this requires more complex weather systems, which will be closely monitored in due course.