Climate Report | The cooling of the tropical water surface is a sign of the intensification of the La Niña phenomenon. How will it affect the Arab world?

Arab Weather - Specialists at the Arab Weather Regional Center said, after following up on the latest computer modeling outputs for the deviation of the temperature of water bodies from the averages, that the region located on the equator of the Pacific Ocean has recently witnessed an additional cooling of the surface temperature of the water, as it decreased from its averages by an amount ranging between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius. This means that the La Nina phenomenon is intensifying and growing, and may continue in the coming months. So what is this phenomenon? And what is the difference between it and the El Nino phenomenon?

What is the difference between El Nino and La Nina?

In detail, El Niño and La Niña are two climate phenomena that occur in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean rises by about half a degree Celsius above normal, while La Niña occurs when temperatures in the Pacific Ocean fall below normal. Both phenomena lead to a number of severe disturbances in the weather worldwide.

During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow westward along the equator, carrying warm water from South America toward Asia. To replace this warm water, cold water rises from the depths—a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing weather patterns that break these normal conditions, and scientists call them the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. El Niño and La Niña can have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years. El Niño and La Niña occur every two to seven years on average, but they do not occur on a regular schedule, although El Niño is more frequent than La Niña.

What is the importance of El Niño and La Niña?

Together, El Niño and La Niña are part of a natural cycle that can significantly impact not only global weather, climate, and ocean conditions, but also food production, human health, and water supplies. These systems typically last for about one to two years, with the cycle rotating every three to seven years.

What is the La Niña phenomenon in detail and what does this word mean?

Arab Weather experts explained that the term La Niña refers to a climate phenomenon associated with the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central, eastern, and central tropical Pacific Ocean. The La Niña phenomenon represents the cold phase of the "ENSO" cycle and means that ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.

The La Niña phenomenon continues during the fall, with a possibility of continuing into the winter. What will be its impact on the atmosphere and climate of the Arab world?

According to the experts at the Arab Weather Center, it is likely, God willing, that the La Niña phenomenon will continue in the coming months. However, it cannot be said with certainty that its effects will be inevitable in terms of its impact on the world's climate, as all the likely effects are the result of statistical processing of the years in which this phenomenon occurred. It is necessary to emphasize that these climate cycles are an integral part of the giant patterns that drive global weather systems.

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center say that the development of the La Nina phenomenon is statistically linked to a season of around or below average rainfall in the Arab region, including the Levant. It is also linked to the development of the Siberian high and its extension at intervals towards the Arab regions, which brings colder and drier weather than usual. However, this cannot be completely confirmed, without ignoring the effects of other weather patterns around the world on the climate of the Arab region, such as the warming of the seas and oceans, in addition to the behavior of the northern parameters (the Arctic and the North Atlantic parameters).

Arab Weather experts noted that these forecasts are based on long-range probability maps with the statistical factor being factored into the equation. Therefore, the forecasts remain variable due to the long time period, and we will update you with the latest weather developments as soon as they are issued.

God knows best.