How does cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean affect the intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic?

Arab Weather - Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Regional Center said that after following up on the latest computer modeling outputs for the deviation of the temperature of water bodies from the averages, the data indicates a clear cooling in the waters of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures have decreased by between one and two degrees since last May. This means that a new climate cycle is prevailing in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which is the growth of the "La Nina" climate phenomenon, which is expected to continue in the coming months.

La Nina phenomenon and its effect on hurricanes

Scientific studies indicate that La Niña, a cooling phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is closely linked to the Atlantic hurricane season. According to the US National Weather Service (NOAA), La Niña increases the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, due to its effect on wind patterns and the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere.

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La Niña also enhances conditions for hurricane development by strengthening trade winds, which helps create a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone growth. Additionally, studies suggest that La Niña cycles can increase the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, increasing the chances of strong hurricanes forming. This warming is also associated with changes in the distribution of moisture in the atmosphere, which affects hurricane dynamics and increases the chances of them becoming more intense.

La Niña affects the shear winds, weakening them and reducing dust coming from Africa, which leads to increased solar radiation.

Some studies have shown that La Niña significantly affects wind patterns, as it has been shown to reduce northerly wind shear. This phenomenon, which is a decrease in the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, leads to changes in global weather systems, which contributes to reducing the strength of the northerly wind shear. This change in wind dynamics can affect weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather conditions in certain regions.

Research also shows that La Niña is linked to a weakening of dust from Africa, which results in increased solar radiation reaching the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This weakening of dust allows more solar radiation to pass through, further heating the water surface. These temperature changes can affect weather patterns and climate, contributing to extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

Some of the most powerful hurricanes during La Niña seasons:

• Hurricane Katrina (2005): One of the most destructive hurricanes in American history, it struck the Gulf of Mexico and caused widespread destruction in New Orleans.
• Hurricane Rita (2005): Followed Katrina and hit large areas of Texas and Louisiana, causing extensive damage.
• Hurricane Irma (2017): A very powerful hurricane, it hit Florida after passing through the Caribbean, where it caused extensive damage.
• Hurricane Maria (2017): Affected Puerto Rico and the US coast of Florida.
• Hurricane Laura (2020): Hit Louisiana with winds of up to 150 mph, causing widespread damage.

Water bodies near the Americas are warming.

Experts at the Arab Weather Regional Center reported a significant rise in the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, especially near the coasts of the Americas, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea, where temperatures range between 30 and 32 degrees Celsius. This rise is expected to continue, heralding more severe hurricanes than usual.

Rising temperatures fuel hurricanes

As the Atlantic Ocean warms, it acts as a "fuel" for hurricanes, injecting large amounts of water vapor and thermal energy into the atmosphere, boosting the chances of more active tropical storms during the hurricane season, which runs from early June to late November and peaks between mid-August and mid-September.

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation

There are two main mechanisms for hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean:

Cloud Packs from Africa : Packs of cumulonimbus clouds move into warm ocean waters, where they feed on thermal energy and water vapor. This causes air pressure to drop and winds to swirl rapidly around the cloud center, heralding the formation of a hurricane.

Water surface temperature rises: When the water temperature exceeds 26 degrees Celsius, water vapor begins to rise and condense, creating huge cumulonimbus clouds. As the air pressure drops, winds begin to rotate regularly around the low pressure center.

A direct polar air shower will bring heavy snow and cover hundreds of kilometres of western Europe at the end of the week.

God knows best.