important | An eastern wave will cross the region and the chances of rain will rise on southern Arabia, starting from the middle of this month

Arab Weather - The latest weather updates recently treated by the air operations room in Arab weather indicate a good possibility of high chances of thunderstorms and their increasing intensity on the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula during the second half of this month, as the so-called eastern wave is active during this period, which means the movement of Winds in the high layers from the east to the west are associated with the presence of large amounts of moisture and high heat convection in the various active layers of the atmosphere, as some global centers are already sensing the deepening of an eastern wave towards the southern atmosphere of the Arabian Peninsula.

An eastern tropical wave crossing southern Arabia

In the details, it is expected that an upper wave (an air depression in the high layers of the atmosphere) will rush towards the southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, coinciding with the deepening of the atmospheric thermal depression located in the southeast of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which significantly deviates the orbital separator line over southern Arabia, Pushing with it large amounts of tropical moisture on the various layers of the atmosphere, which leads to the emergence of a state of atmospheric instability accompanied by thunderstorms in many areas.

The medium-range probabilistic weather maps indicate the shift of the base of the subtropical air altitude towards the north of the Arabian Peninsula, which means limiting the blowing of the dry northern winds. On the other hand, the humid monsoon winds from the south find an easy way to spread.

It is worth noting that during the summer in the northern hemisphere the trade winds move northward and take a zigzag path, carrying with them large amounts of moisture from the tropics, towards areas with average solar radiation in large values, which creates a fertile area for the formation of cumulus clouds that cause For thunderstorms, or what is locally called monsoon rains.

What is the probability of the case evolving into an integrated orbital system?

On the other hand, it is not expected that the thunder clouds expected to form over India will develop into an integrated tropical system, due to the intensification of the monsoon winds, which are considered bad and not ideal for the process of developing the tropical system to the point of a storm or hurricane, as they work to disperse the clouds and thus prevent their cohesion with each other and their union To form a strong air system.

From a statistical and climatic point of view, tropical conditions are not usually observed in the Arabian Sea at the height of the winter and summer seasons. Rather, tropical states are formed in the autumn and spring seasons, that period of time in which the absolute control of the shear winds is absent and is calm.