Is there a good chance for a tropical situation to develop in the Arabian Sea at the end of next week?

Arab Weather - a series of weather turbulence forming in the northeast of the Arabian Sea as of the middle of next week, this is indicated by most of the numerical models several days ago, and the weather forecast cadre at the Arab Regional Weather Center shows the possibility of tropical turbulence developing into an integrated orbital system and its rush into the atmosphere Arabian island.

What is the truth about the formation of a tropical state and its rush to the Arabian Peninsula?

In details, the Bay of Bengal is witnessing a series of tropical turbulence, as the tropical turbulence soon rushes to the northeast of the Indian subcontinent, and the other will develop in the depth of the Gulf, and this is attributed, God willing, to the warming occurring in the Bay of Bengal or what is known as the negative bipolar Indian Ocean, Hot water is the fuel for these orbital systems.

With the continued development of tropical disturbances in the Bay of Bengal, some numerical models indicate the development of one of them into an integrated tropical system in the form of a tropical depression and its crossing into northern India to land in the northeast of the Arabian Sea. Southern Arabia was affected several times by tropical conditions with a similar system.

Looking at the weather conditions prevailing in the Arabian Sea during the next week, it is clear that the monsoon winds will continue to dominate, which means a remarkable activity of shear winds in most parts of the Arabian Sea, as they are not ideal for the development process of the tropical system because they limit the vertical growth of cumulus clouds, meaning that they impede the process of increasing cumulus clouds. The thickness of the clouds, and thus become shallow and stratified, meaning that the orbital system will weaken if it moves in the southern direction of the Arabian Peninsula, in addition to the decrease in the temperature of the surface of the Arabian Sea in the western part of it.

In contrast, the northern region of the Arabian Sea is witnessing a clear weakness in the activity of shear winds, and favorable conditions for the development of tropical conditions. However, the semi-tropical air altitude will constitute an obstacle to its approach to the northern part of the Sultanate of Oman, but there is still plenty of time for some data to change, Due to the wide margin of error and the large number of data and weather factors, in addition to the fact that the tropical situation has not yet formed, it is recommended to follow up on the issued reports periodically to obtain the latest developments.

The forecasts for Arab weather, which have been developed and integrated dynamic and statistical data together, indicate an increase in the chances of tropical conditions forming in the Arabian Sea during the month of October, especially in the second half of the month, and more details will be published later.