Jordan | February 2022: The continued rush of cold air masses towards the Kingdom imposes a colder atmosphere than usual, and rain is present on more than one occasion with renewed snow opportunities.

Arab Weather - The monthly weather forecast for Jordan for the month of February 2022 was issued via the Arab Weather website and application under the title "The continued rush of cold air masses towards the Kingdom imposes a colder atmosphere than usual, and rain is present on more than one occasion with renewed snow opportunities."

Here are the bulletin details:

General situation:

• A long-term air rise dominates the European continent that would lead to several cold descents towards the Middle East regions at different angles of descent.
• Cooler than usual temperatures are the main feature of the weather in this month.
• Several depressions affecting the Kingdom bring with them rain on more than one occasion, which leads to continued improvement in the rainy reality.
• Snow chances are renewed this month.
• The continued arrival of these cold air masses to the region requires more complex weather systems to cause extensive snowfalls, which can be sensed at short intervals, God willing, at the time.

Special weather condition for each week:

First week (1-7 February) 2022:

• Rain: about average
• Temperatures: Turn cooler than average.
• Flood Chance: Low.
• Snow chance: Low except for high mountainous areas.
• Description of air systems:
  
  • On the fourth and fifth of February, the Kingdom is affected by an air depression that brings rain and cold weather, and perhaps some snow to the high mountains. The Kingdom’s impact on this depression is preceded by a stable atmosphere with activity in the southeast winds, with active speed, and cold to very cold weather at night. On the seventh of the month, there are signs that the Kingdom will be affected by a new but rapid depression that brings rain, God willing, to several regions of the Kingdom.

Second week (February 8-14), 2022:

• Rain: about average
• Temperatures: Turn cooler than average.
• Flood Chance: Low.
• Snow chance: Medium.
• Description of air systems:
  
  • Large parts of western and southwestern Europe are increasingly affected by a new air altitude, which leads to an increase in the chances of the Middle East and eastern European regions being affected by cold eruptions. Indicators indicate that the region was affected by several rapid air depressions separated by cold periods, but the indicators are considered high because the region is affected by an air depression of advanced degrees at the end of this period, and with it the chance of snow falling over the mountainous heights in the Levant.

Third week (15-21 February) 2022:

• Rain: about average
• Temperatures: Colder than average.
• Flood Chance: Low.
• Snow chance: Medium
• Description of air systems:
  
  • The European continent is covered in large areas by an air rise in all layers of the atmosphere, which, God willing, leads to the continuation of polar eruptions, but at different angles towards the Middle East. In any case, this general pattern leads to colder than usual weather prevailing in all regions of the Middle East, with the frequent occurrence of frost and hail waves. At the beginning of this period (middle of the month), the region is affected by a depression of advanced degrees that was mentioned in the previous week, and there is a chance that the region will be affected by another new depression around the 18th of the month.

Fourth Week (February 22-28), 2022:

• Rain: About above average
• Temperatures: Colder than average.
• Flood Chance: Low.
• Snow chance: High.
• Description of air systems:
  
  • Strong air altitudes continue to dominate the European continent, and the main feature remains the occurrence of cold descents at different angles towards the Levant, and therefore temperatures remain colder than usual rates with the frequent occurrence of frost and hail waves. It is also expected that the Kingdom will be affected by more than one air depression, God willing, during this period.

Climatic situation (for professionals and those interested)

The Arctic Oscillation Coefficient (AO) is expected to start the month in a negative pattern, but quickly rise to a neutral to light positive pattern, and it will continue its behavior during most of the month in this way with behavior very similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

These conditions are often accompanied by a good distribution of cold air masses in eastern Europe, to have the largest share of air masses rushing from the North Pole. It is expected, God willing, that the upper air altitude will continue to dominate large parts of the European continent, supported by the surface construction of the Azorean air rise, according to what computer modeling of atmospheric simulation senses. It is an important part of the European continent represented by its western, central and southern regions, and some computer modeling has even predicted that the air mass will be concentrated throughout the days of the month in the west of the European continent. Turkey in the south and the Balkan countries in the west are the main feeder after God’s will for the formation of winter depressions in Haw Eastern z of the Mediterranean, Egypt and northern Arabia.

The shape of the prevailing weather patterns in the winter season in the northern hemisphere is directly affected by the behavior of the so-called polar vortex, from which the winter depressions are branched. This is also evident from the expansion of the ice cover in important areas of the Arctic, unlike last year, when we were affected by the consequences of the weakening of the polar vortex and its unusual negative impact on most of the Arab world.

As for the Arabian Peninsula, it is still experiencing both conditions as a result of the interruption of weather activities after a generally weak marking, so that the La Nina phenomenon still afflicts the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean, which indirectly affects the heat exchange processes between Hadley cell and Ferrell cell, i.e. between the tropical zone (0 latitude 0 to 30 north), and a noticeable intensification of the semi-tropical air rise, which also extends its control over these areas, and these areas are also affected by direct consequences of the inactivity of the so-called Madden and Julian (MJO) amid weakness in the humid tropical response from the Arabian Sea.

As a summary, it has become a certainty, that with the deepening of the air mass in the European continent, and that it will expand in the north to reach the Scandinavian countries in some periods, forcing the continued influx of cold air masses towards the region at different angles, the arrival of this air mass would impose on the Levant region Significant drop in temperatures for most of the month, with the occurrence of large-scale waves of frost and ice in some periods. As for snow, the arrival of these air masses to the region requires more complex weather systems to cause large-scale snowfalls, which can be sensed at close intervals, God willing.

How to issue monthly bulletins

The issuance of these forecasts depends on studying the behavior of temperature and atmospheric pressure in the northern hemisphere, including the atmosphere and major water bodies, and integrating those forecasts with global monitoring centers, to come up with the highest possible forecast.

Arab weather experts in the Scientific Research and Development Department have developed scientific methods that are considered the first of their kind in the Arab world and the world, relying on artificial intelligence in forecasts for the coming months, by developing complex mathematical algorithms and equations to detect atmospheric behavior and correct long-range weather forecasts.

In contrast to the daily weather forecast, these bulletins focus on listing the general weather during a month, where the aim is to know the deviation of rainfall amounts and temperatures from their general rates. Many meteorologists in the world are busy trying to decipher the mystery of making accurate seasonal forecasts by conducting many researches in this regard, in which the Arab Weather team participates in part.

The desired benefit of the quarterly bulletins lies in assisting the various sectors in the early planning for the fall and winter alike, especially the agricultural sector, which builds its agricultural plans on these indicators that sometimes help to reap and achieve profits by exploiting this information, in addition to many other sectors that Benefit from these forecasts, such as the commercial sectors, the apparel sector, the energy sector and others.

Note: It is strictly forbidden to transfer this information, data, and the weather forecast, to publish it on social media and others, and/or to dispose of it in any way without the prior and written consent of Arab Weather, under penalty of legal accountability.

God knows