Jordan | What are the scientific reasons behind the poor performance of the rainy season and do indicators promise an improvement soon?

Arab Weather - The meteorological team at the Arab Weather Regional Center conducted a comprehensive study to assess the beginning of the rainy season in the Kingdom and the Levant. This study comes as the end of the fall season approaches and the region prepares to welcome the winter season, which officially begins climatically in December 2024.

Explaining the scientific reasons behind the poor performance of the rainy season so far

The region has witnessed a clear weakness in rainfall amounts since the beginning of the current season, as rainfall amounts are recording numbers much lower than usual rates. Current data indicate that the rainfall performance of the season is very weak, as the rainfall rate reached only 1% in the central regions of the Kingdom, reflecting a sharp decline from the normal levels for this period of the year. This is currently attributed to a group of influential weather factors, including:

1. Unfavorable weather systems prevail: Weather systems that lead to stable weather conditions prevail, with no radical changes that would lead to strong rain activity in the region. Cold polar air is flowing towards western Europe and northwestern Africa, and this flow has caused strong rainstorms in those regions, such as the storm that affected the Spanish capital, Madrid, and the surrounding areas.
2. Warm air rushing towards the eastern Mediterranean: This led to enhanced atmospheric stability over Jordan and the Levant, reducing the chances of rain clouds forming.
3. The distance of the depression centers from the region: The activity of the depressions is currently concentrated over Türkiye, which deprives the Kingdom and the Levant of their direct influence.

Do the upcoming forecasts herald an improvement in rainfall performance in the Kingdom?

The average performance of the rainy season compared to the amounts of rainfall expected to fall until mid-November is (5%), and with the Kingdom being affected by an extension of a distant low pressure system in the middle of the week, the amount of change in rain performance after the impact of the weather system is expected to be (15%).

Rainfall performance is a term used to evaluate the amount of rainfall during a rainy season compared to the expected normal. When rainfall performance is described as poor, it means that rainfall is significantly below normal, leading to negative impacts on agriculture and water resources. Conversely, if performance is good, it indicates that rainfall has reached or exceeded seasonal averages.

And God knows best.