Mediterranean Sea Warming: Will History Repeat Itself with Hurricane Daniel?

Arab Weather - Arab Weather Regional Center specialists are monitoring the latest outcomes of computer models for monitoring the temperature of water bodies, through which specialists noted that the eastern Mediterranean basin is witnessing a rise in water surface temperature, reaching 30 to 31 degrees Celsius in its central part, especially the Ionian Sea, which is considered part of the Mediterranean Sea, from which Hurricane Daniel started last year. Thus, the water surface temperature has exceeded its usual rates by about 5 degrees Celsius, and it is likely that the Mediterranean Sea will witness further rises in light of the dominance of hot air masses (a marine heat wave) during the rest of August, especially with the expansion of hot air from the African continent towards the European continent.

Warming Mediterranean Sea is considered a fertile environment for the formation of Mediterranean storms

Weather experts at Arab Weather pointed out that these very warm and humid weather conditions in the Mediterranean Sea may be a fertile environment that contributes to the formation of Mediterranean storms (Medicanes), which are similar to tropical storms and hurricanes in terms of structure and accompanying weather phenomena, but occur in the Mediterranean region.

These storms have subtropical characteristics similar to storms that originate in areas close to the equator. Although they are less powerful than storms that originate in the oceans and wide seas, they are no less dangerous and destructive. Mediterranean storms appear on satellite images as strong thunderstorms around a low-pressure center, accompanied by strong winds and large amounts of rain. The center of the storm is warm. These storms feed on the heat and moisture of the water surface, and lose much of their power upon entering land.

These storms are classified starting with a subtropical depression, followed by a subtropical storm, and sometimes reaching the level of a subtropical Mediterranean cyclone known as a “medicane.” For example, the Mediterranean cyclone “Ianos” that hit Greece in 2020.

As its anniversary approaches... Storm Daniel is an exceptional weather system in the Mediterranean

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center said that the central part of the Mediterranean Sea, specifically the Ionian Sea region between Italy and the Balkans, from which Hurricane Daniel was launched last year, is witnessing a noticeable warming, as the surface temperature of the water reaches more than 30 degrees Celsius, which is a fertile environment for the formation of Mediterranean storms.

Going back to last year’s archive, specifically September 2023, Libya was hit by the subtropical storm “Daniel,” which was caused by the warming of the Mediterranean Sea. Although it did not reach the classification of a Mediterranean hurricane, its effects were catastrophic for several reasons, most notably the water temperature in the central Mediterranean, which was the highest since 2009, ranging between 27 and 30 degrees Celsius, creating a fertile environment for the growth of this type of storm.

The slow movement of the storm caused it to remain over the sea for a long time, allowing it to develop from a subtropical Mediterranean depression into a strong subtropical storm before reaching Libya. The flow of warm winds towards the center of the storm increased the severity of atmospheric instability, which contributed to strengthening the storm. Huge amounts of rain fell, exceeding 400 mm in one day, an amount close to what falls on some Jordanian cities in an entire year.

Is Hurricane Danielle coming back?

In this context, many people wonder about the possibility of a recurrence of Hurricane Daniel. Weather experts at the Arab Weather Center said that Hurricane Daniel was exceptional and that weather and topographic factors combined to give it catastrophic effects on the ground. However, it cannot be said with certainty that Hurricane Daniel will recur this year because weather patterns vary from year to year. However, there is no doubt that the surface temperature of the water in the eastern Mediterranean basin is suitable for the development of Mediterranean storms next fall, but this requires special weather conditions such as the separation of the upper air depression from the general circulation of the jet stream and its acquisition of semi-tropical characteristics after its prolonged stay above the water surface.

A long history of Mediterranean storms and hurricanes

It is worth noting that historically the Mediterranean Sea has been exposed to weather patterns (Mediterranean storms) more severe than Hurricane Daniel, some of which reached the strength of a first-degree tropical cyclone. Perhaps the clearest example of a Mediterranean hurricane occurred in mid-January 1995, when a hurricane formed in the central Mediterranean, in the maritime area between Italy, Greece and Libya. These same maritime areas also witnessed the formation of a Mediterranean hurricane in 2014, called Storm Gandrisa, which mainly affected parts of Sicily and Malta, with heavy rains, hail and strong winds reaching speeds of 150 km/h.

Cold air masses coming from the north are considered the main factor in the formation of such weather systems, as the encounter of this cold air with the warm, humid air coming from the south leads to the formation of frontal depressions, in conjunction with the warming of sea water to more than 20 degrees Celsius, in addition to the presence of very turbulent weather conditions.

If all the above weather conditions are met, the only remaining condition is for the formed low pressure system to separate from the cold mass in the north and acquire sufficient tropical characteristics. This only happens very rarely.

God knows best.

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