On probation | Continuing indications of a possible tropical state formation in the Arabian Sea next week

Arab Weather - Sinan Khalaf - We are still in Arab Weather watching around the clock, the last output of numerical models and what some of these models have begun to indicate about the possibility of a tropical state in the Arabian Sea in the middle of next week.

The European numerical model had started since last Thursday by referring to the possibility of forming a tropical state in the Arabian Sea during the second half of this month, while the rest of the numerical models do not indicate that, which means that the probability is still low and may diminish or develop during the next two days at will. God, Weather will constantly follow up and issue updates about the weather in the Arabian Sea, first hand.

Previous tropical cases and hurricanes formed in the Arabian Sea during October

It is noteworthy that the month of October is considered one of the active periods in which tropical states are active in the Arabian Sea, and the climate archive is full of many of these cases, some of which turned into cyclones that later moved towards the Sultanate of Oman, the most prominent of which is Cyclone Kiar and Cyclone Laban.

More details about the increasing opportunities for a tropical state to form in the Arabian Sea, you can find in the monthly bulletin via the Arab Weather app

Conditions form tropical states in the Arabian Sea

When going into the details of the orbital condition , one must know what conditions must be met in order to facilitate the process of weather forecasting and to investigate the possibility of thunder clouds developing into an air system or not.

First: The surface temperature and depth of water bodies:

The growth and development of tropical states depends mainly on the presence of a water body with a depth of more than 60 meters and a water temperature of 27 degrees Celsius or more. Hot water is the fuel that drives this tropical system.

With reference to the Arabian Sea, we find that the surface temperature of the water ranges between 27 -28 degrees Celsius, which is very suitable and ideal for the evolution of the weather, as the depth of the water in the Arabian Sea reaches 3-5 km. These conditions are very appropriate.

Second: Wind Shear

One of the important and fundamental matters in the development of tropical states is the weakness of the shear winds, and the shear winds are defined as the change in the velocity and direction of the winds in both vertical and horizontal directions, as these winds weaken and limit the vertical growth of thunderstorm clouds, that is, they impede the process of increasing Cloud thickening, thus becoming shallow and stratified and thus weakening the orbital system.

Numerical weather models suffer from extreme difficulty in the process of monitoring, predicting and simulating tropical conditions , especially before the formation of the tropical depression, in addition to the many weather variables.