Seasonal Bulletin for Saudi Arabia | Weather fluctuations associated with dust with the beginning of autumn and less activity than usual in the Arabian Sea! .. details

Arab Weather - Sinan Khalaf - Arab Weather issued its seasonal forecast for the remainder of the summer, in addition to an important part of the fall season, and the seasonal bulletin summarized the initial signs of what is expected of weather events and phenomena during the next three months (September, October and November) for the year 2021 AD. Here are the details:

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General situation

1. Warmer than usual weather in northern Saudi Arabia.

2. The activity of the Red Sea depression is intermittent, and the chances of rain gradually improve, especially in the west and parts of the north of the country.

3. A gradual succession of instability during the fall season.

4. Warning of dust formation in some periods as less cold air masses approach from the northwest of the Kingdom and as a result of the huge thermal differences.

5. Altocumulus rain clouds at intervals in parts of the north, center and west of the country.

6. Flood alert in parts of the highlands of southern Saudi Arabia.

Weather charts for the next three months  

The most prominent weather phenomena expected in the coming months

Temperature deviation from general averages

Deviation of rain from the general averages

Air Systems Distribution

Special weather condition for each month

First month: September 2021

General forecast for the month

• Atmospheric pressure rises on the north of the Arabian Peninsula in conjunction with the continued chances of access to the upper cold basins from Egypt, which leads to an increase in the chances of thunderstorms in the south of the Arabian Peninsula during periods of the month, and in conjunction with the extension of the Red Sea depression to the north.
• The extension of the Red Sea depression to the north and west of Saudi Arabia leads to the dominance of dry and hot weather in general, with the expectation that some dry cumulus clouds will multiply, which may be associated with limited local rainfall and the activity of the movement of dust-inducing winds.
• The temperature is within its usual rates, slightly higher in many areas, especially in the north of the Kingdom, which means hot weather, but it is usual for this time of the year.

Second month: October 2021

General forecast for the month

• The tropical elevation is moving further north, to raise temperatures again in some areas, especially western and northern Saudi Arabia.
• A chance of some thunderstorms in the south and west of Saudi Arabia and weak parts of the western central regions.
• It is expected that the Red Sea depression will affect northern and western Saudi Arabia at times, which will lead to the continuation of warm and dry conditions with opportunities for some limited cumulus formations.

Third month: November 2021

General forecast for the month

• The tropical high is expected to shift to the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula gradually.
• As a result, heat storms and heat waves that hit some areas, especially the eastern parts of the country, are expected to weaken, while they are warmer in northern Saudi Arabia.
• The flow of moisture-laden eastern winds increases at times towards southern Arabia, especially southern Saudi Arabia, where it is expected that these areas will be affected by cumulus clouds sometimes.
• Dust chances increase in large parts of the country due to the beginning of the approach of air masses from the northwest of the region and the large thermal differences that occur and affect the atmospheric pressure values, which contribute to the formation of some dust waves.

Climatic situation (for professionals and those interested)

Arctic and North Atlantic

It is expected that the values of atmospheric pressure over the Arctic Circle (AO) with the beginning of the autumn season will vary between positive and negative values, which leads to a significant change in the movement of the polar jet streams and allowing cold air to descend to middle and later semi-tropical widths clearly in some periods.

In view of the activity of unstable weather conditions on the North Atlantic Ocean and several parts of western, central and southwestern European continent, where the North Atlantic Oscillation will be positive (NAO) and it means an increase in the atmospheric pressure difference between the Azorean High and the Icelandic Low, which will result, God willing, a remarkable and great activity The humid Atlantic winds towards western and central Europe and later towards Spain and Portugal.

Together, these conditions will increase the semi-tropical atmospheric altitude in the high layers of the atmosphere over the northern Arabian Peninsula, which means that temperatures will continue to rise until late times of the autumn season, especially the areas of northern Saudi Arabia and the far east of the Levant.

At the expense of exposure to areas of northwest Africa and the entire western Mediterranean, with air masses of less moderate temperatures in general, which may result in showers of rain in some areas.

Pacific Ocean, Arabian Sea, Northern Indian Ocean

The Neutral phenomenon still dominates the surface waters of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures prevail around below the general rates in those regions. This phenomenon affects the weather in many regions around the world, as it indirectly contributes to the weak seasonal rains in the south and west of the Arabian Peninsula at the expense of the improvement in rains in the Horn of Africa and Sudan, and works on a fair and non-extreme (balanced) distribution in the air heights. Subtropical, meaning that the weather systems change from time to time.

As for the coming months, it is expected, with a high rate, the continuation of the decline of the La Niña phenomenon and the dominance of the neutral pattern, in conjunction with the increase in the polarity values of the Indian Ocean (IOD) and the areas of the Arabian Sea.

These weather conditions increase the chances of rain in parts of southern and southwestern Saudi Arabia and are statistically associated with a mostly active Khareef season. However, it is not possible to judge the behavior of the atmosphere through one variable, but rather the sum of dozens of thermal variables and the dynamic behavior of the atmosphere that cannot be judged. Certainly only when the period approaches after the command of God.

God knows