Seismic activity in Jordan ... between truth and media intimidation

Arab weather - Wadad Al - Saudi - barely a year passes in recent years except rumors and articles emerge from various sources that a devastating or large earthquake will hit Jordan and the surrounding areas, especially after an earthquake occurred here and another there, which prompted us in the Arab weather to talk and discuss with specialists This topic is correct, and clarifies whether Jordan is a seismically active region.

During this report, we spoke with the President of Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, Professor of Geophysics and Seismology at the University of Jordan, Dr. Najeeb Abu Karaki, and Director of the Jordanian Seismological Observatory, Dr. Mahmoud Al-Qaryouti.

Is Jordan a seismically active region?

First of all, it must be emphasized that Jordan is a seismically active region, but this activity is moderate if compared to other countries, and this is due, according to Dr. Najib Abu Karaki, that the speed of movement of tectonic plates in the region is moderate, as it moves تتحرك cm per year compared to other regions In the world; So it takes a very long time to produce a strong earthquake in this region.

To clarify this, he pointed to the Fukushima earthquake in Japan in 2011, which totaled the resulting energy during the three months that followed, it takes 6 million years for similar energy to be collected in our region.

Dr. Mahmoud Al-Qaryouti stated that the seismic activity areas in Jordan are the Gulf of Aqaba, the Dead Sea, the Jordan Valley, Wadi Araba and the Jordan Valley, stressing that there is no specific time for seismic activity.

He added that the activity and frequency of earthquakes during certain periods do not necessarily indicate a strong earthquake during the coming period

The tremor's strength alone is not enough to say that this earthquake was devastating

"Abu Karaki" explained that the last strong earthquake hit the kingdom in 1995 with a magnitude of 7.3, according to the Kanamori scale, 80 km south of Aqaba, and behind 10 deaths, in four countries, most of them are in Egypt, but this earthquake is according to the intensity measure of the earthquake. It is concerned with studying the amount of damage caused by the earthquake after its occurrence, it is considered non-destructive or strong, when compared to the severity of the 11/7/1927 earthquake that was measuring 6,2 in the Jordan Valley which left 350 deaths.

And that the earthquake force alone is not enough for the earthquake to be devastating, but there are several factors that play a role, including:

• The epicenter and location of the earthquake is close to populated areas; In the previous two examples, after the earthquake in Aqaba in 1995, the number of deaths decreased, compared to the 1927 earthquake that was near populated areas.
• The time of the earthquake (day or night)
• The type of rock to the geology in which the earthquake occurred and its depth

To clarify this, Abu Karaki stated that the city of Ramle in Palestine is affected by the strength of the earthquake to humble, as well as the town of Rinah, near Nazareth, Palestine, with the peculiarities of its location because it is built in a plain and its soil is not coherent.

"And when the earthquake is a danger to life and when is it devastating?", Al-Qaryouti explained that when the strength of the tremor is 4 degrees, then the earthquake begins as a danger to life, while it is destructive at 6 degrees or more, indicating that the majority of earthquakes, especially the destructive ones, occur as a result of the movement of the plates. Tectonic.

In turn, "Abu Karaki" believes that the scale of the earthquake intensity is not always consistent with the force of the earthquake, pointing to an earthquake in Yemen with a magnitude of 4.5 in which 11 people were killed, while an earthquake in Chile of 8.3 killed 2.

In Agadir 1960, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred, and it is considered one of the most destructive earthquakes in terms of "intensity ", which is the measure of damage after the earthquake, "which reached 12 which is the highest degree, where 12 thousand people were killed because the earthquake occurred directly under the city.

What is the ability to predict earthquakes?

On the possibility of predicting an earthquake, Al-Qaryouti emphasized that seismic forecasting (prediction) is not possible at all times. As for the location, it is possible, in our case, the Gulf of Aqaba, the Dead Sea, the Jordan Valley and Wadi Araba, indicating that studying seismic history is useful in assessing and mitigating seismic risks.

And that during the previous years, the 2004 earthquake with a magnitude of 5.2 occurred, and the last "strong" earthquake was in 1995 with a magnitude of 7.3 and occurred in the Gulf of Aqaba, the distance is about 80 km south of the city of Aqaba, pointing out that the losses were limited during it because the earthquake occurred far from the city center.

A historical overview of seismic activity in Jordan, according to the Jordanian seismological source

• Jordan has been monitoring seismic activity in the Kingdom since 1983 through the Jordanian Seismological Observatory through the National Seismological Network by monitoring earthquakes that mainly cover all sources of seismic activity in order to ensure an accurate identification of seismic activity resulting from these sources in addition to regional and remote earthquakes.
• Jordan is located on the northwestern edge of the Dead Sea Rift System, which is responsible for the seismic activity of Jordan and the surrounding areas.
• Seismic activity in the region is concentrated along the main fault lines formed by this tectonic system. This seismicity was characterized by the following:

1. The presence of seismic storms, the most important of which is in the Gulf of Aqaba, where several major seismic storms occurred, the first of which was in 1983 with a strength of 5.1 and the largest was the Gulf of Aqaba storm that started on 11/22/1995 and lasted for two years and recorded 5742 earthquakes, the largest of which was the main earthquake of 7.3 degrees.
2. Several earthquakes occurred in the Dead Sea, the largest of which was in February 2004, with a strength of 5.1.
3. Seismic activity rarely occurs in the eastern regions of Jordan, but in 1989 a 5.1-magnitude earthquake occurred in Azraq and was felt by citizens in Azraq and the surrounding areas