Serious droughts will hit Europe early due to climate change

ArabiaWeather - A research team led by scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Weather Sciences indicated that major and severe droughts, some of which extend for more than five years, will accelerate to reach the European continent earlier than the end of this century, with an unexpected change different from expectations. Previous scholars.

Extreme droughts and climate variability

To arrive at these findings, published in the Nature Foundation's journal Communications Earth and Environment, the researchers ran 100 simulations using the Max Planck Institute's climate model. The focus during this simulation was to understand extreme droughts and climate variability in the North Atlantic.

The researchers concluded that simultaneous bouts of heatwaves and extreme drought could occur approximately every two years in Europe from 2050 to 2075.

Effects of climate change

In addition, the study showed that the likelihood of severe heat stress events will increase over the same time period, which will place an additional burden on healthcare systems that must prepare for it now. These warnings come especially with these phenomena expected to occur early in the next decade.

As North Atlantic temperatures rise, the likelihood of exceeding normal levels of heat and drought stress increases exponentially, according to the institute's official press release.

Climate change is causing the average temperature of the atmosphere to increase, causing greater amounts of water to evaporate from the Earth's surface and soil. This, therefore, reduces the water available for plants, animals and human activities, leading to droughts.

As temperatures rise, the air is able to absorb up to 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius rise in temperature. Thus, when the planet warms by about 2.9°C, as assumed in the post-industrial scenario, the air's capacity to hold water will increase by approximately 21%.

In addition, climate change is affecting the pattern of rainfall, making some areas drier than they were previously. This effect causes rainfall to shift in intensity in some areas, which is currently happening in Europe. For example, European river water includes water flowing from mountains that collects during the winter when there are large amounts of snow. But as temperatures rise, snowfall in these areas decreases, leading to a shortage of water sources.

In a study conducted by the University of Cambridge in 2021, it was found that the drought waves that Europe has witnessed since 2015 have been more severe compared to any other period during the past thousands of years, and the reason behind this escalation in the severity of drought waves is due to the effects of climate change resulting from human activities.

Strong droughts are coming

Scientists may disagree as to when severe droughts will occur in Europe, but they largely agree that they are inevitable. For example, a NASA study showed that the probability of major droughts lasting 10 years will rise from 12% today to more than 60% by the end of the century.

A previous study published in the journal Nature indicated that annual drought losses in European countries could reach more than 65 billion euros annually over several decades, compared to the current situation of 9 billion euros annually. This will result in additional burdens on health systems in particular.

Source: aljazeera