Statement issued by the Jordanian Astronomical Society regarding the crescent moon of Shawwal 1446/2025

Arab Weather - The Jordanian Astronomical Society stated that sighting the Shawwal crescent moon after sunset on Saturday, March 29, 2025, is not possible with the naked eye, nor with optical devices such as binoculars and telescopes in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the surrounding region, and the entire Islamic world. Technical details are included in the attached statement.

The Jordanian Astronomical Society has confirmed that it is not the official body authorized to announce the dates of religious holidays and occasions. The determination of the beginning of the "Hijri months" falls under the purview of His Eminence the Grand Mufti of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Council of Iftaa, Research and Islamic Studies, which are the official authority for announcing the beginnings of the Hijri months in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Below is an appendix to the statement on the data of the Shawwal crescent from the theoretical, statistical and experimental (observational) perspectives.

First: The theoretical aspect based on basic astronomical calculations:

Coupling calculations and other data for the city of Amman and its suburbs, as follows:

The conjunction (new moon) will occur at 1:58 PM on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The angle of elevation of the crescent above the horizon at sunset will be 1.4 degrees, the angle between the moon and the sun (elongation) will be 2.2 degrees, its duration will be 10 minutes, its age will be 4 hours and 56 minutes, and the degree of illumination will be 0.1%.

As is well known in astronomy, the lunar cycle begins with the moment of conjunction, while the Hijri month is based on "sighting" according to what is followed in Arab and Islamic countries and by Islamic jurisprudence councils.

Second: Statistical and probabilistic calculations based on empirical formulas and deductive mathematical relationships:

Science includes methods for analyzing and predicting phenomena, including relying on extensive and accurate observations and statistical processing to derive mathematical equations (deductive reasoning) from which criteria can be established. An example of this is the criteria for crescent moon sighting based on an extensive database, which develops with the development of technological means. This approach is considered a reliable method in the physical, astronomical, and natural sciences. This is known in schools of phenomenology and various experimental schools, and methodologies that rely on intuitive experiences (conjecture) for scientific phenomena.

Analyzing the theoretical results of the Shawwal crescent on Saturday, March 29, mentioned above in Part 1, and comparing them with the databases documented by the Islamic Crescent Sighting Project, which number more than 3,000 documented observations in the project’s databases, shows that seeing the crescent after sunset on March 29 is not possible in Jordan, whether with the naked eye or with optical astronomical devices (such as binoculars or telescopes). On the other hand, according to the Odeh criterion, which is based on 737 documented observations and has been supported by hundreds of subsequent global observations, seeing the crescent is not possible in Jordan, the surrounding countries, and even the entire Islamic world after sunset on Saturday, March 29, 2025, whether with the naked eye or with a telescope.

Third: Experimental (observational) aspects:

Finally, we say: The burden of proof is on the one making the claim. Anyone claiming to have seen the crescent moon on the evening of March 29 is required to provide acceptable evidence, including photographs, a detailed description, a list of the devices used, the observer's location coordinates, astronomical parameters, and weather conditions.